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Violent Crime Trends in Fair Oaks Ranch: A Decade of Growth and Change
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Fair Oaks Ranch, located in Texas, has experienced significant population growth alongside fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 2 to 9, representing a 350% increase. During the same period, the population grew from 9,636 to 22,888, a 137.5% increase.
Murder rates in the city have remained consistently low, with only one reported case in 2011. This translates to a rate of 0.097 murders per 1,000 people in 2011, which dropped to 0 in subsequent years. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city was 0.12% in 2011, but 0% in all other years. This suggests that murder is an extremely rare occurrence in the city, even as the population has grown significantly.
Rape incidents have shown some variability over the years. The city reported 1 case in 2010, 2 cases in 2015 and 2018, 3 cases in 2019, and a peak of 5 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated from 0.104 in 2010 to 0.218 in 2022. The percentage of state rapes attributed to the city increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022. This indicates a slight upward trend in rape cases, both in absolute numbers and relative to the state, though the overall incidence remains low.
Robbery has been infrequent in the city. Only two years, 2016 and 2020, reported a single robbery case each. The rate per 1,000 people was 0.072 in 2016 and 0.049 in 2020. The percentage of state robberies attributed to the city remained at 0% for most years, indicating that robbery is not a significant concern in the area.
Aggravated assault cases have shown a general upward trend. From 1 case in 2010, the number increased to 4 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated, peaking at 0.199 in 2017 before settling at 0.175 in 2022. The percentage of state aggravated assaults attributed to the city has remained low, reaching 0.01% in recent years. This suggests that while aggravated assaults have increased, they remain proportionally low compared to state figures.
There appears to be a correlation between population growth and the overall increase in violent crimes. As the population density increased from 785 per square mile in 2010 to 1,866 in 2022, the total number of violent crimes also rose. However, the rate of increase in crimes has not kept pace with population growth, indicating that per capita crime rates have remained relatively stable or even decreased for some categories.
The racial distribution of the city has remained predominantly white, though there has been a slight decrease from 79% in 2013 to 68% in 2022. Concurrently, there has been a small increase in the Hispanic population from 17% to 22%, and the Black population from 0% to 5%. These demographic shifts coincide with the overall increase in violent crimes, but the relationship is not strong enough to suggest causation.
Applying predictive models based on current trends, it's projected that by 2029, the city may see a continued gradual increase in violent crimes, potentially reaching 12-15 total incidents annually. This forecast assumes a continuation of current population growth trends and socioeconomic factors.
In summary, Fair Oaks Ranch has experienced a notable increase in violent crimes over the past decade, particularly in rape and aggravated assault categories. However, this increase should be contextualized within the city's rapid population growth. The per capita crime rates have remained relatively low, and the city's contribution to state crime figures is minimal. As the community continues to expand, maintaining vigilance and implementing proactive crime prevention strategies will be crucial in preserving the overall safety and quality of life for residents.
