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Violent Crime Trends in Fair Lawn: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Fair Lawn, New Jersey, is a suburban community located in Bergen County. This analysis examines the violent crime trends in the city from 2010 to 2022. Over this period, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 27 incidents in 2010 to 18 in 2022, representing a 33.3% reduction. Concurrently, the population grew from 32,141 in 2010 to 34,948 in 2022, an increase of 8.7%.
Regarding murder trends, the city experienced very low rates throughout the period. There were no murders reported in most years, with exceptions in 2016 and 2018, when 3 and 2 murders occurred respectively. These isolated incidents represented 1.31% and 1.1% of the state's total murders in those years. The murder rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.09 in 2016 and 0.06 in 2018, dropping back to zero in subsequent years. This suggests that while murder is not a persistent issue, the city is not immune to occasional violent incidents.
Rape incidents in Fair Lawn showed variability over the years. The highest number of reported rapes was 5 in 2015, representing 0.85% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 people that year was 0.15. In contrast, there were years with no reported rapes, such as 2018 and 2019. The most recent data from 2022 shows 1 rape incident, or 0.15% of the state's total, with a rate of 0.03 per 1,000 people. This indicates a generally low but fluctuating trend in rape occurrences.
Robbery trends in the city showed a general decline over the observed period. In 2010, there were 9 robberies, which decreased to 5 in 2022. The highest number of robberies was 18 in 2011, representing 0.21% of the state's total. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.28 in 2010 to 0.14 in 2022. Despite some fluctuations, the overall trend suggests an improvement in public safety regarding robberies.
Aggravated assault incidents fluctuated but showed a slight downward trend. The number of cases dropped from 17 in 2010 to 12 in 2022. The highest number of aggravated assaults was recorded in 2010, representing 0.2% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.53 in 2010 to 0.34 in 2022. This indicates a moderate improvement in this category of violent crime.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 6,259 per square mile in 2010 to 6,805 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate showed a general decrease. Additionally, there seems to be a slight correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased from 73% in 2013 to 68% in 2022, and the Hispanic population increased from 10% to 14% during the same period, violent crime rates fluctuated but generally decreased.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that violent crime in Fair Lawn may continue to show a slight downward trend over the next five years (until 2029). The total number of violent crimes could potentially decrease to around 15-16 incidents annually, assuming current socioeconomic conditions and law enforcement efforts remain consistent.
In summary, Fair Lawn has experienced an overall decrease in violent crime from 2010 to 2022, despite population growth. The most significant improvements were seen in robbery and aggravated assault rates. While occasional spikes in specific crime categories occurred, the general trend suggests an enhancement in public safety. The city's changing demographics and increasing population density appear to have a complex relationship with crime rates, warranting continued monitoring and community-focused crime prevention strategies.
