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Violent Crime Trends in Fair Grove, Missouri: A Decade of Low Rates Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Fair Grove, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2018, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, ranging from a low of 0 in 2012 and 2014 to a high of 12 in 2015. During this period, the population grew from 3,159 in 2010 to 3,681 in 2018, representing a 16.5% increase.
Examining murder trends, Fair Grove maintained a consistent record of zero murders throughout the reported period from 2010 to 2018. This trend remained stable despite the population growth, resulting in a murder rate of 0 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to the state's murder statistics remained at 0% throughout this period, indicating a notably safe environment in terms of homicides.
Rape incidents in the city were rarely reported, with only two cases documented in 2017 and 2018. This translates to a rate of approximately 0.28 rapes per 1,000 residents in those years. The percentage of state rape crimes attributed to Fair Grove stood at 0.05% in both 2017 and 2018, suggesting a minimal impact on statewide statistics despite the occurrence of these incidents.
Robbery trends in Fair Grove were minimal, with only one incident reported in 2015. This singular event represented 0.02% of the state's robbery cases for that year. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents was approximately 0.27 in 2015, dropping to zero in subsequent years. The infrequency of robberies suggests a generally low risk for this type of crime in the city.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Fair Grove. The number of incidents fluctuated over the years, peaking at 11 cases in 2015, which represented 0.07% of the state's aggravated assaults. The rate of aggravated assaults per 1,000 residents ranged from 0 to 2.98, with the highest rate occurring in 2015. Despite these fluctuations, the city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics remained relatively low, never exceeding 0.07%.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates in the city. As the population density increased from 991 per square mile in 2010 to 1,155 per square mile in 2018, there was a general upward trend in violent crime incidents, particularly noticeable in aggravated assaults. However, this correlation is not perfectly linear, as evidenced by the years 2012 and 2014, which saw no reported violent crimes despite increasing population density.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that Fair Grove may experience a slight increase in violent crimes over the next five years (until 2029). The model suggests that aggravated assaults could potentially rise to an average of 7-8 incidents per year, while other violent crimes are expected to remain at similarly low levels as observed in recent years.
In summary, Fair Grove has maintained relatively low violent crime rates despite its population growth. The most significant concern appears to be aggravated assaults, which have shown some volatility but remain a small percentage of state totals. The city's ability to maintain zero murders over the observed period is particularly noteworthy. As Fair Grove continues to grow, monitoring these trends will be crucial for maintaining the overall safety and security of its residents.
