Robbery trends in the city have been relatively stable with some fluctuations. In 2010, there were 4 robberies, which increased to 6 in 2016, but then decreased to 3 by 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people actually decreased slightly from 0.52 in 2010 to 0.44 in 2022, due to the population decline. The city's contribution to state robbery cases has remained relatively low, fluctuating between 0.02% and 0.12% over the years. This suggests that while robbery remains a concern, it has not escalated as dramatically as other violent crimes in the city.

Aggravated assault cases have shown significant variability. From 16 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 5 in 2021 but then sharply increased to 13 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 2.09 in 2010 to 1.89 in 2022, showing a slight decrease due to population decline. The city's share of state aggravated assaults has fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.16% in 2017 before dropping to 0.05% in 2022. This volatile trend suggests inconsistent factors influencing assault rates in the community.

There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crime and changes in racial demographics. The percentage of white residents decreased from 74% in 2013 to 66% in 2022, while the black population increased from 15% to 19%, and the Hispanic population grew from 8% to 11%. This demographic shift coincided with the overall increase in violent crimes, particularly murders and rapes. Additionally, there's a potential correlation between rising median rent (from $688 in 2013 to $950 in 2022) and increased violent crime rates, possibly indicating growing economic pressures within the community.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued increase in overall violent crimes. Based on current trajectories, murders could potentially reach 5-6 per year, rape incidents might rise to 6-7 annually, robberies could stabilize around 3-4 per year, and aggravated assaults might increase to 18-20 cases annually. However, these predictions assume current trends continue without intervention.

In summary, Erwin faces significant challenges with its violent crime rates, particularly in murders and rapes, which have increased disproportionately to its population decline. The changing demographic composition and rising housing costs appear to correlate with these trends. As the community looks toward the future, addressing these underlying factors and implementing targeted crime prevention strategies will be crucial in reversing these concerning violent crime trends.