Robbery trends showed a general decline over the studied period. In 2010, there were 15 robberies (0.18% of state total), which peaked at 40 in 2013 (0.5% of state total). However, by 2022, robberies had increased to 23 incidents, representing 0.96% of the state's total. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.56 in 2010 to 0.79 in 2022, with fluctuations in between. This indicates that while the absolute number of robberies has increased, the rate relative to population has remained relatively stable.

Aggravated assault cases showed the most significant increase among violent crimes. In 2010, there were 43 cases (0.5% of state total), which rose to 75 cases in 2022 (1.32% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people increased from 1.60 in 2010 to 2.58 in 2022, indicating a substantial rise both in absolute numbers and relative to population growth. This trend suggests that aggravated assault has become a more prevalent issue in the city over time.

There appears to be a correlation between the increase in violent crimes and changes in racial demographics. From 2013 to 2022, the Hispanic population in the city grew from 21% to 29%, while the Black population decreased from 33% to 23%. During this period, violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults, showed an upward trend. However, it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation, and other socioeconomic factors may be contributing to these trends.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued increase in overall violent crimes if current trends persist. Aggravated assaults are likely to see the most significant rise, potentially reaching around 100 cases annually by 2029. Robbery rates may stabilize or show a slight increase, while murder rates are expected to remain low but unpredictable due to their rarity. Rape cases may continue to fluctuate but with a potential upward trend.

In summary, Englewood has experienced a notable increase in violent crimes over the past decade, particularly in aggravated assaults, while maintaining relatively low murder rates. The rise in crime rates has outpaced population growth, suggesting a need for targeted interventions and community-based strategies to address these trends. As the city continues to evolve demographically, it will be crucial for local authorities to adapt their crime prevention and community engagement efforts to ensure the safety and well-being of all residents.