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Violent Crime Trends in Emerald Isle, NC: Aggravated Assaults on the Rise
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Emerald Isle, located in North Carolina, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. Over the years from 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with no clear consistent trend. The population grew modestly from 3,620 in 2010 to 3,870 in 2022, an increase of about 6.9%.
Regarding murder trends, the city experienced very low rates throughout the period. Only one murder was recorded in 2014, representing 0.32% of the state's total murders that year. This translates to a rate of approximately 0.27 murders per 1,000 people for that year. In all other years, there were no murders reported. This suggests that murder is an extremely rare occurrence in the city, even as the population increased over time.
Robbery trends in the city have been relatively low and inconsistent. The highest number of robberies occurred in 2016 with 3 incidents, representing 0.06% of the state's robberies. This equates to about 0.81 robberies per 1,000 residents. In most other years, there were either 0 or 1 robbery reported. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has generally remained below 0.3, indicating that robbery is not a significant concern for the community despite population growth.
Aggravated assault has shown more variability over the years. The highest number of aggravated assaults was recorded in 2018 with 14 incidents, representing 0.11% of the state's total. This translates to about 3.78 aggravated assaults per 1,000 residents. The rate has fluctuated, with notable increases in 2014 (3.52 per 1,000) and 2022 (2.84 per 1,000). Despite these fluctuations, the percentage of state crime for aggravated assault has generally remained below 0.1%, suggesting that the city's contribution to statewide aggravated assault figures is minimal.
When examining correlations, there appears to be a weak positive relationship between population density and the number of aggravated assaults. As the population density increased from 735 per square mile in 2010 to 786 per square mile in 2022, there was a general upward trend in aggravated assaults, though not consistently. The racial distribution has remained predominantly white throughout the period, with the percentage of white residents slightly decreasing from 96% in 2016 to 91% in 2022. This slight decrease coincides with a small increase in residents identifying as two or more races, rising from 2% to 6% in the same period.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's challenging to forecast with high confidence due to the inconsistent trends. However, if current patterns continue, we might expect the number of violent crimes to remain relatively low over the next five years (up to 2029). Aggravated assault may continue to be the most prevalent violent crime, potentially averaging between 10-15 incidents per year. Robberies are likely to remain infrequent, possibly averaging 1-2 per year. Murders are expected to remain extremely rare, with potentially years passing between occurrences.
In summary, Emerald Isle has maintained relatively low violent crime rates despite modest population growth. Aggravated assault emerges as the most significant violent crime concern, while murders and robberies remain infrequent. The city's contribution to statewide violent crime statistics is minimal across all categories. These trends suggest that Emerald Isle remains a relatively safe community with violent crime rates well below what might be expected for its population size.
