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Violent Crime Trends in Elberta, Alabama: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Elberta, located in Alabama, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. Over the years from 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 9 in 2010 to 6 in 2022, representing a 33.33% reduction. During this same period, the population decreased from 3,829 in 2010 to 3,440 in 2022, a 10.16% decline.
The murder rate in Elberta has shown significant variation over time. In 2010 and 2011, there were no reported murders. However, in 2014 and 2022, there was one murder each year. This increase, while small in absolute numbers, is significant for a town of this size. The murder rate per 1,000 people rose from 0 in 2010 to 0.29 in 2022. The percentage of state murders attributable to Elberta also increased from 0% in 2010 to 0.27% in 2022. This trend suggests a concerning uptick in the most serious violent crime category, despite the overall population decrease.
Rape incidents in Elberta have also seen an increase. There were no reported rapes from 2010 to 2014, but by 2022, there were 2 reported cases. This translates to a rate of 0.58 rapes per 1,000 people in 2022. The town's contribution to state rape statistics rose from 0% to 0.23% over this period. This trend indicates a worrying emergence of sexual violence in the community that was not present in earlier years.
Robbery rates in Elberta have remained consistently at zero throughout the recorded period from 2010 to 2022. This stability in robbery incidents, even as the population fluctuated, suggests that property-related violent crime has not been a significant issue for the town.
Aggravated assault, which constituted the majority of violent crimes in Elberta, showed a decreasing trend. In 2010, there were 9 cases, which dropped to 3 cases in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 2.35 in 2010 to 0.87 in 2022. However, the town's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics decreased only slightly from 0.15% to 0.03%, indicating that the reduction in Elberta was somewhat in line with state-wide trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 548 per square mile in 2010 to 493 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate also decreased. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between the racial composition and crime rates. As the white population percentage increased from 86% in 2013 to 92% in 2022, the overall violent crime rate decreased, though specific violent crime categories like murder and rape saw increases.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Elberta may see a slight increase in murders and rapes, potentially reaching 2 murders and 3 rapes per year. Aggravated assaults are expected to remain stable at around 3-4 cases annually. The overall violent crime rate is predicted to hover around 2 incidents per 1,000 residents.
In summary, Elberta has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape. While overall violent crime and aggravated assaults have decreased, there have been concerning increases in murders and rapes. The town's changing demographics and decreasing population density appear to have influenced these trends. Moving forward, local law enforcement and community leaders in Elberta should focus on addressing the emerging issues of serious violent crimes while maintaining the positive trends in other areas.
