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Violent Crime Trends in East Moline: Mississippi River City Faces Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
East Moline, Illinois, a city spanning 14.6 square miles along the Mississippi River, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of violent crimes increased by 23%, from 74 to 91 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 2.8%, from 22,936 to 22,298 residents, suggesting a disproportionate rise in crime relative to population changes.
The murder rate in the city has shown significant variability. In 2010, there was one murder, representing 0.17% of the state's total. The city then experienced several years without any reported murders until 2017, when another single incident occurred, accounting for 0.11% of the state's murders. By 2020, the number increased dramatically to 4 murders, constituting 0.41% of the state's total. This sharp increase raised the murder rate from 0.04 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.18 per 1,000 in 2020, a concerning 350% rise in the murder rate per capita over the decade.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, with a general upward trend. In 2010, there were 13 reported rapes (0.57 per 1,000 residents), representing 0.76% of the state's total. By 2020, this number had nearly doubled to 25 (1.12 per 1,000 residents), accounting for 0.73% of the state's rapes. This indicates a 92% increase in the rape rate per capita, suggesting a significant worsening of this particular crime category within the city.
Robbery trends have shown more volatility. In 2010, there were 8 robberies (0.35 per 1,000 residents), making up 0.04% of the state's total. The number peaked at 22 in 2016 (0.98 per 1,000 residents) but then decreased to 5 by 2020 (0.22 per 1,000 residents), representing 0.05% of the state's robberies. Despite the recent decrease, the overall trend shows a 37% reduction in the robbery rate per capita from 2010 to 2020.
Aggravated assault, the most common violent crime in East Moline, has seen fluctuations but an overall increase. In 2010, there were 52 cases (2.27 per 1,000 residents), accounting for 0.21% of the state's total. By 2020, this number had risen to 57 (2.56 per 1,000 residents), still representing 0.21% of the state's aggravated assaults. This reflects a 13% increase in the aggravated assault rate per capita over the decade.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,571 per square mile in 2010 to 1,527 in 2020, violent crime incidents increased. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between changes in racial demographics and crime rates. The percentage of white residents decreased from 68% in 2013 to 65% in 2020, while the percentage of Black residents increased from 7% to 12% during the same period, coinciding with the overall increase in violent crimes.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, East Moline could see a further 15-20% increase in overall violent crime rates if current trends continue. Particularly, murder rates may continue to rise, potentially reaching 6-7 incidents per year. Rape incidents could increase to around 30-35 annually, while aggravated assaults might approach 65-70 cases per year. Robbery rates, however, may continue their downward trend, potentially decreasing to 3-4 incidents annually.
In summary, East Moline has faced significant challenges with violent crime over the past decade, particularly in the areas of murder, rape, and aggravated assault. The disproportionate increase in crime rates compared to population changes, coupled with shifting demographics, suggests a complex interplay of social and economic factors influencing crime in the city. As East Moline moves forward, addressing these trends will be crucial for improving public safety and community well-being.
