Robbery occurrences have been rare, with only three incidents recorded over the 12-year period: one each in 2011, 2014, and 2018. These represented 0.85%, 0.69%, and 0.54% of the state's robbery cases respectively. The rate per 1,000 people was 0.45 in 2011, 0.40 in 2014, and 0.44 in 2018. The infrequency of robberies suggests it is not a prevalent issue in the city.

Aggravated assault has been the most common form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents fluctuated from a low of 1 in 2011, 2012, 2014, and 2015 to a high of 10 in 2020. The percentage of state aggravated assaults ranged from 0.04% in 2021 to 0.84% in 2010. The rate per 1,000 people varied from 0.40 in 2015 to 4.66 in 2020. The trend shows an overall increase in aggravated assaults from 2010 to 2020, followed by a significant drop in 2021.

There appears to be a moderate correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 513 per square mile in 2010 to 620 in 2015, violent crimes remained relatively low. However, as the density decreased to 539 per square mile in 2021, there was a spike in violent crimes in 2019 and 2020 before dropping significantly in 2021.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in violent crime rates. This prediction is based on the overall fluctuating trend observed from 2010 to 2021, with consideration given to the recent significant drop in 2021.

In conclusion, East Helena has experienced varying levels of violent crime over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The absence of murders and the rarity of rapes and robberies indicate a relatively safe community. However, the fluctuations in aggravated assaults warrant continued attention from local law enforcement and community leaders to maintain and improve public safety.