Robbery trends in the city have been more volatile. The number of robberies decreased from 659 in 2010 to 587 in 2022, a 10.9% reduction. However, when adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 people decreased more significantly from 2.88 in 2010 to 2.01 in 2022. Durham's percentage of state robberies increased from 8.86% in 2010 to 11.51% in 2022, suggesting that while robberies decreased in the city, they decreased at a slower rate compared to the state overall.

Aggravated assault cases in Durham have shown a substantial increase, rising from 872 in 2010 to 1,193 in 2022, a 36.8% increase. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 3.81 in 2010 to 4.09 in 2022. However, the city's percentage of state aggravated assaults decreased from 6.49% in 2010 to 4.97% in 2022, indicating that while assaults increased in Durham, they increased at a slower rate compared to the state average.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a strong correlation between the increase in violent crimes and the rise in median rent, which grew from $877 in 2013 to $1,383 in 2022. Additionally, the changing racial demographics, particularly the decrease in the Black population from 40% in 2013 to 34% in 2022, and the increase in the White population from 38% in 2013 to 40% in 2022, coincide with shifts in crime patterns.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued upward trajectory. Based on current trends, total violent crimes could potentially reach around 2,300 incidents by 2029, with murders possibly increasing to approximately 55 cases per year. Rape incidents might continue to rise, potentially reaching 180 cases annually. Robbery rates are predicted to stabilize around 550 incidents per year, while aggravated assaults could increase to about 1,500 cases annually.

In summary, Durham has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime trends over the past decade. While some categories like robbery have shown improvement, others such as murder, rape, and aggravated assault have seen significant increases. These changes have occurred against a backdrop of rapid population growth and shifting demographics. The city's contribution to state-wide crime statistics has varied across different crime categories, reflecting the unique challenges and dynamics of urban development in Durham. As the city continues to grow and evolve, addressing these crime trends will likely remain a key focus for local policymakers and law enforcement agencies.