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Violent Crime Trends in Duquesne: A Decade of Change in a Former Industrial Hub
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Duquesne, Pennsylvania, a small urban area of 1.82 square miles, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 38.3%, from 94 to 58 incidents. During this same period, the population declined by 4.8%, from 5,826 to 5,544 residents. This analysis will explore the trends in specific violent crime categories and their implications for the city's safety and development.
Murder rates in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 3 murders, representing 0.6% of the state's total. This number peaked at 5 in 2011 (1.03% of state total) before declining to zero reported murders in 2015 and 2016. By 2018, the number rose again to 3, accounting for 0.54% of the state's murders. When adjusted for population, the murder rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.51 in 2010 to 0.54 in 2018, despite the overall decrease in population. This suggests that while the absolute number of murders remained relatively stable, the risk per capita slightly increased.
Rape incidents fluctuated between 3 and 10 cases annually from 2010 to 2018. The city's contribution to the state's total rape cases ranged from 0.15% to 0.52%. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 1.20 in 2010 to 1.81 in 2016, before declining to 0.54 in 2018. This volatility in rape statistics, particularly the spike in 2016, warrants attention from law enforcement and community support services.
Robbery trends showed a general decline, dropping from 30 cases in 2010 (0.23% of state total) to 20 cases in 2018 (0.26% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 5.15 in 2010 to 3.61 in 2018, indicating an improvement in public safety regarding this crime category. However, the city's proportion of state robberies slightly increased, suggesting that the decline was less pronounced than in other parts of Pennsylvania.
Aggravated assault cases exhibited the most significant fluctuations. From 54 cases in 2010 (0.37% of state total), the number dropped to 16 in 2013 (0.13% of state total), then rose sharply to 59 in 2017 (0.45% of state total), before decreasing to 32 in 2018 (0.24% of state total). The rate per 1,000 residents followed a similar pattern, peaking at 10.64 in 2017 before dropping to 5.77 in 2018. These dramatic shifts suggest underlying factors influencing violent behavior in the community that require further investigation.
A strong correlation exists between the city's changing racial demographics and violent crime trends. As the Black population percentage decreased from 58% in 2017 to 44% in 2022, and the White population increased from 29% to 38%, there was a corresponding decline in violent crimes. This trend suggests potential socioeconomic factors at play that intersect with racial demographics and crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029, Duquesne may see a further reduction in violent crimes, potentially reaching around 45-50 incidents annually. This forecast assumes continued demographic shifts and sustained efforts in crime prevention.
In summary, Duquesne has shown a complex pattern of violent crime trends over the past decade. While overall violent crime has decreased, individual categories like aggravated assault have shown significant volatility. The changing racial composition of the city appears to be a factor in these trends. As the city continues to evolve, targeted interventions focusing on the root causes of violent crime, particularly aggravated assaults, could further enhance public safety and community well-being in Duquesne.
