Aggravated assault has been the most consistently reported violent crime in Du Quoin. The number of aggravated assaults increased from 8 in 2010 to 19 in 2017, before decreasing to 10 in 2019. This represents a change from 0.03% of the state's total in 2010 to 0.04% in 2019, with a peak of 0.08% in 2013. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.96 in 2010 to 2.35 in 2017, before declining to 1.25 in 2019.

There appears to be a moderate correlation between the increase in violent crimes and the slight decrease in population density over the years. As the population density decreased from 1,193 per square mile in 2010 to 1,147 per square mile in 2019, the total number of violent crimes showed an overall upward trend.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029), we might expect to see a continuation of the fluctuating pattern observed in recent years. The aggravated assault rate is likely to remain the most significant contributor to violent crime in the city, potentially averaging between 10-15 cases annually. Robbery rates may stabilize around 1-2 cases per year, while rape incidents could continue to occur sporadically, averaging 1-2 cases annually. Murder rates are expected to remain very low, with the possibility of no occurrences in most years.

In summary, Du Quoin has experienced a complex pattern of violent crime over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the most prevalent issue. The slight increase in overall violent crime rates, coupled with a decreasing population, suggests a need for targeted crime prevention strategies. The city's relatively low crime numbers, compared to state totals, indicate that while there are challenges, Du Quoin remains a comparatively safe community within Illinois.