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Violent Crime Trends in Dover, New Jersey: A Decade of Resilience in a Small City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Dover, New Jersey, a small city of approximately 2.73 square miles, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of violent crimes decreased from 36 to 24, representing a 33.33% reduction. During this same period, the population grew slightly from 18,207 to 18,191, an increase of about 0.09%.
The murder rate in the city has remained consistently low, with only two incidents reported between 2010 and 2020. In 2011 and 2014, there was one murder each year, representing 0.34% and 0.42% of the state's total murders, respectively. The murder rate per 1,000 people was 0.055 in 2011 and 0.055 in 2014, showing no significant change relative to population growth. The rarity of these events makes it challenging to discern a clear trend, but it suggests that homicide is not a prevalent issue in the community.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, with reported cases ranging from 0 to 3 annually. The highest number was recorded in 2016 with 3 cases, representing 0.45% of the state's total. The rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.164 in 2016. However, the data shows significant variability, with several years reporting no incidents. This inconsistency makes it difficult to establish a clear trend, but it indicates that rape remains a concern that requires ongoing attention from law enforcement and community services.
Robbery has shown a general downward trend over the decade. In 2010, there were 13 robberies (0.16% of state total), which increased to 28 in 2011 (0.32% of state total). However, by 2020, this number had decreased to 7 (0.24% of state total). The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.714 in 2010 to 0.385 in 2020, a significant reduction of 46.08%. This trend suggests improving public safety with regard to property crimes.
Aggravated assault cases have fluctuated but show an overall decrease. In 2010, there were 22 cases (0.26% of state total), which rose to a peak of 27 cases in 2019 (0.44% of state total), before dropping to 14 cases in 2020 (0.21% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people went from 1.208 in 2010 to 0.770 in 2020, a 36.26% decrease. This trend indicates an improvement in violent interpersonal crimes, though the fluctuations suggest ongoing challenges in maintaining consistent reductions.
There appears to be a correlation between the Hispanic population and violent crime rates. As the Hispanic population increased from 67% in 2015 to 72% in 2022, there was a general decrease in violent crimes. This suggests that the growing Hispanic community may be contributing to a more stable social environment. Additionally, the slight increase in population density from 6,804 people per square mile in 2010 to 6,886 in 2022 does not seem to have negatively impacted crime rates, indicating that other factors are more influential in crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, Dover may see a further reduction in overall violent crime rates. The robbery rate is expected to continue its downward trend, potentially reaching fewer than 5 incidents per year. Aggravated assaults may stabilize around 15-20 cases annually. However, given the variability in rape and murder statistics, these crimes may continue to fluctuate but remain relatively low.
In summary, Dover has shown a generally positive trend in reducing violent crime over the past decade, particularly in robberies and aggravated assaults. The city's changing demographics, particularly the growing Hispanic population, appear to correlate with these improvements in public safety. While challenges remain, especially in addressing sporadic incidents of serious crimes like rape and murder, the overall trajectory suggests a safer community environment for residents of Dover, New Jersey.
