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Violent Crime Trends in Douglas, Arizona: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Douglas, located in Arizona, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. From 2011 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated significantly, with a notable decrease from 199 incidents in 2012 to 19 in 2022, representing a 90.45% reduction. During this period, the population declined slightly from 20,261 in 2011 to 18,260 in 2022, a 9.88% decrease.
Murder rates in the city have remained relatively low but inconsistent. In 2011 and 2012, there was one murder each year, representing 0.36% and 0.35% of the state's total murders respectively. The rate then dropped to zero for several years before returning to one murder in 2021 and 2022. This translates to a murder rate of approximately 0.05 per 1,000 people in 2022, compared to 0.05 per 1,000 in 2011. The percentage of state murders attributed to the city increased to 0.89% in 2021 before decreasing to 0.28% in 2022, indicating a disproportionate increase relative to the state trend in 2021.
Rape incidents have shown variability over the years. From zero reported cases in 2011, there were two cases in 2012, followed by fluctuations between zero and one until 2021, when it rose to two cases, and further to three cases in 2022. This represents an increase from 0 to 0.16 incidents per 1,000 people from 2011 to 2022. The city's contribution to state rape cases increased from 0% in 2011 to 0.13% in 2022, suggesting a slight upward trend in relation to state figures.
Robbery rates have generally declined over the period. From five incidents in 2011 and 2012 (0.07% of state robberies), the number decreased to one in 2022 (0.02% of state robberies). This represents a decrease from 0.25 robberies per 1,000 people in 2011 to 0.05 per 1,000 in 2022, indicating a significant improvement in this category of violent crime.
Aggravated assault showed the most dramatic changes. From 191 cases in 2012 (1.37% of state cases), it decreased to 14 cases in 2022 (0.08% of state cases). This translates to a reduction from 9.27 assaults per 1,000 people in 2012 to 0.77 per 1,000 in 2022, marking a substantial improvement in public safety regarding this crime category.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 2,030 people per square mile in 2011 to 1,829 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in violent crimes. Additionally, there seems to be a relationship between the Hispanic population percentage and crime rates. As the Hispanic population increased from 73% in 2013 to 83% in 2022, violent crime rates generally decreased, suggesting that the demographic shift did not negatively impact crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), violent crime rates could continue to decrease slightly or stabilize at low levels. Murder rates are likely to remain low, potentially averaging less than one per year. Rape incidents might stabilize around 2-3 cases annually. Robbery rates could further decrease to near-zero levels. Aggravated assaults may continue their downward trend, potentially reaching single-digit annual occurrences.
In summary, Douglas has experienced a significant overall reduction in violent crime from 2011 to 2022, despite some fluctuations in specific categories. The decrease in population and density, coupled with changing demographics, appears to have coincided with improved safety metrics. These trends suggest a positive outlook for public safety in the coming years, with violent crime rates expected to remain low or potentially decrease further.
