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Violent Crime Trends in Dorris: A Small California City's Safety Profile
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Dorris, located in California, presents an interesting case study for violent crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 3 incidents in 2010 to 7 in 2022, representing a 133.33% increase. During this same timeframe, the population experienced modest growth, rising from 1,252 in 2010 to 1,247 in 2022, a slight decrease of 0.40%.
The murder rate in Dorris has remained consistently at zero throughout the examined period from 2010 to 2022. This stability in the absence of murders is significant, especially considering the slight population fluctuations. The murder rate per 1,000 people has consequently remained at 0, and the city has maintained a 0% contribution to the state's murder statistics. This consistent lack of murders suggests a relatively safe environment in terms of the most severe form of violent crime.
Rape incidents in the city have been infrequent but not entirely absent. The data shows sporadic occurrences, with one reported case in 2012, 2015, and 2020. This translates to a rape rate that fluctuated between 0 and 0.80 per 1,000 residents. The percentage of state rape crimes attributable to Dorris ranged from 0% to 0.02% in years when incidents occurred. The inconsistent nature of these occurrences makes it challenging to identify a clear trend, but it's notable that the city has managed to keep rape incidents relatively low despite population changes.
Robbery in Dorris has been similarly rare, with only two reported incidents over the 13-year period - one in 2011 and another in 2014. This results in a robbery rate that peaked at 0.74 per 1,000 residents in 2014. The city's contribution to the state's robbery statistics remained at 0% for most years, indicating that robberies are not a significant issue in the local context. The infrequency of robberies suggests that property-related violent crimes are not a major concern for residents.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents varied from year to year, with a low of 0 in 2012 and a high of 7 in 2022. The rate of aggravated assaults per 1,000 residents ranged from 0 to 5.61. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics has been minimal, peaking at 0.01% in 2011, 2014, 2015, and 2022. The trend shows an overall increase in aggravated assaults, particularly in recent years, which warrants attention from local law enforcement.
Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors, there appears to be a moderate positive correlation between the Hispanic population percentage and violent crime rates. As the Hispanic population increased from 27% in 2013 to 38% in 2019, violent crime incidents also showed an upward trend. However, it's important to note that this correlation does not imply causation, and other factors may be influencing this trend.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the historical data and recent uptick in aggravated assaults, we might expect to see a continued gradual increase in violent crimes, primarily driven by aggravated assaults. The model suggests that by 2029, the total number of violent crimes could reach approximately 9-10 incidents per year, assuming current trends continue without significant interventions.
In summary, Dorris has maintained a relatively low violent crime rate over the past decade, with no murders and infrequent occurrences of rape and robbery. The most significant concern is the increasing trend in aggravated assaults, which has been the primary driver of violent crime in the city. While the overall numbers remain low, the upward trend in recent years suggests a need for targeted community policing and crime prevention strategies to address the rise in assaults and maintain the city's generally safe environment.
