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Violent Crime Trends in Dodge City: A Decade of Change in the Historic Frontier Town
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Dodge City, Kansas, a historic frontier town known for its Wild West heritage, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 13.95%, from 129 to 111 incidents. During this same period, the city's population grew by 4.36%, from 27,234 to 28,422 residents.
Murder rates in the city have shown considerable volatility. The number of murders per year ranged from 0 to 3, with no consistent trend. In terms of population, the murder rate fluctuated between 0 and 0.1 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to state murder statistics varied significantly, from 0% in several years to a peak of 3.85% in 2014. This variability suggests that individual incidents have a substantial impact on the city's murder statistics due to its relatively small population.
Rape incidents in the city have shown a slight downward trend. The number of reported rapes decreased from 20 in 2010 to 15 in 2022, a 25% reduction. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents only decreased from 0.73 to 0.53. The city's percentage of state rape cases fluctuated between 0.65% and 2.55%, indicating that while the local trend is improving, it remains a significant concern relative to state figures.
Robbery trends have been relatively stable with some fluctuations. The number of robberies decreased from 14 in 2010 to 8 in 2022, a 42.86% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents similarly dropped from 0.51 to 0.28. Interestingly, the city's contribution to state robbery statistics increased from 0.96% to 1.1% over this period, suggesting that while local numbers improved, they did not keep pace with state-wide reductions.
Aggravated assault, the most common violent crime in the city, showed a slight decrease. Incidents fell from 95 in 2010 to 87 in 2022, an 8.42% reduction. However, when adjusted for population, the rate only decreased marginally from 3.49 to 3.06 per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state aggravated assaults decreased from 1.54% to 1.15%, indicating some improvement relative to state trends.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the Hispanic population percentage and violent crime rates. As the Hispanic population increased from 57% in 2013 to 63% in 2022, violent crime rates showed some fluctuation but an overall decrease. This suggests that demographic shifts may be influencing crime trends, though the exact nature of this relationship requires further investigation.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. Based on current trends, we project that the total number of violent crimes could decrease to approximately 100-105 incidents per year by 2029, assuming population growth remains consistent and no major socioeconomic changes occur.
In summary, Dodge City has shown resilience in managing violent crime over the past decade. While murder rates remain volatile due to the city's size, there have been improvements in rape and robbery rates. Aggravated assault, while decreasing, remains the most prevalent violent crime. The changing demographic landscape, particularly the growing Hispanic population, appears to be correlated with these crime trends. As the city continues to evolve, ongoing monitoring and adaptive crime prevention strategies will be crucial to maintain and improve upon these trends in the coming years.
