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Violent Crime Trends in Dillon, Montana: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Dillon, Montana, a small urban center with a population of 5,064 as of 2022, has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes decreased from 14 to 10, representing a 28.57% reduction. During the same period, the population saw a slight decrease of 0.55%, from 5,092 in 2010 to 5,064 in 2022.
Murder trends in the city have remained relatively stable, with most years reporting zero incidents. The only exception was in 2020 when one murder was recorded, representing 4.17% of the state's total murders that year. This single incident resulted in a rate of 0.20 murders per 1,000 people, which was an anomaly in the city's otherwise murder-free history.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, with a peak of 3 cases reported in both 2017 and 2018. The rate per 1,000 people reached its highest at 0.56 in these years. The percentage of state rape cases attributed to the city varied, with the highest being 1.03% in 2018. By 2022, rape incidents had decreased to 1 case, or 0.20 per 1,000 people, accounting for 0.25% of the state's total.
Robbery trends show minimal occurrence, with only two incidents reported in 2017, representing 0.9% of the state's robberies that year. This translates to a rate of 0.37 robberies per 1,000 people. In most other years, including 2022, no robberies were reported, indicating a generally low risk for this type of crime in the city.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city, with significant fluctuations over the years. The highest number of cases was recorded in 2017 with 16 incidents (2.96 per 1,000 people), representing 1.1% of the state's total. By 2022, this had decreased to 9 cases (1.78 per 1,000 people), accounting for 0.38% of the state's aggravated assaults. Despite the overall decrease, aggravated assault remains the primary concern in the city's violent crime landscape.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density fluctuated between 2,522 and 2,872 people per square mile from 2010 to 2022, violent crime rates did not consistently follow these changes. The racial composition of the city, predominantly white (92% in 2022), has remained stable and does not show a strong correlation with crime rate variations.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, the city may see a slight decrease in overall violent crime rates if current trends continue. Aggravated assault is likely to remain the most common violent crime, potentially averaging around 8-10 cases per year.
In conclusion, Dillon has maintained relatively low violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The city's small size and stable demographics contribute to its generally low crime profile. While there have been fluctuations in specific crime categories, the overall trend suggests a gradual decrease in violent crime. Moving forward, continued monitoring and community-based crime prevention strategies could help maintain or further improve the city's safety record.
