Rape incidents have shown more volatility. In 2010, there were 19 reported rapes, which increased to a high of 45 in 2019 before declining to 26 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated from 0.43 in 2010 to a peak of 0.86 in 2019, settling at 0.48 in 2022. The city's percentage of state rape cases varied, reaching a high of 1.37% in 2015 and dropping to 0.65% by 2022. This trend indicates a concerning spike in 2019 followed by a significant reduction, possibly due to increased prevention efforts or reporting changes.

Robbery trends show a general decline over the period. From 10 incidents in 2010 (0.23 per 1,000 people), robberies peaked at 23 in 2012 before steadily decreasing to just 1 incident in 2022 (0.02 per 1,000 people). The city's share of state robberies dropped from 0.07% in 2010 to a mere 0.02% in 2022, indicating a substantial improvement in this category of violent crime.

Aggravated assault cases have shown an upward trend. Starting with 26 incidents in 2010 (0.59 per 1,000 people), the number fluctuated before reaching 35 in 2022 (0.64 per 1,000 people). The city's proportion of state aggravated assaults increased from 0.22% in 2010 to 0.2% in 2022, with some years showing higher percentages. This suggests that while the raw number of assaults has increased, the city's share relative to the state has remained relatively stable.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and certain violent crimes. As the population density increased from 2,202 per square mile in 2010 to 2,718 in 2022, there was a corresponding increase in aggravated assaults. However, this correlation doesn't hold for all violent crimes, as robberies decreased during the same period.

Racial demographics show a gradual shift, with the white population decreasing from 91% in 2013 to 83% in 2022, while Asian and multiracial populations increased. This demographic change coincides with the overall increase in violent crimes, though a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further study.

Applying predictive models based on the current trends, we can forecast that by 2029 (five years from now), Delaware may experience: - A continued low murder rate, likely remaining at or near zero incidents per year. - A potential stabilization of rape cases around 30-35 per year if recent reduction efforts are maintained. - Further reduction in robberies, possibly to less than 5 incidents annually. - A slight increase in aggravated assaults, potentially reaching 40-45 cases per year.

In summary, Delaware has shown mixed trends in violent crime over the past decade. While murders remain rare and robberies have significantly decreased, rape and aggravated assault cases have fluctuated and shown some increases. The city's growing population and changing demographics may play a role in these trends, but targeted interventions appear to have been effective in some areas, particularly in reducing robberies. Moving forward, focusing on assault prevention and maintaining the low rates in other categories will be crucial for Delaware's public safety efforts.