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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Del Norte, Colorado, a small town with a population of 1,930 as of 2022, has experienced notable changes in its violent crime trends over the past decade. This analysis examines the period from 2010 to 2022, during which the town's population grew by approximately 6.3%, from 1,816 to 1,930 residents.
The total number of violent crimes in Del Norte has fluctuated significantly since 2010. The town reported no violent crimes in 2010 and 2011, with the highest number of incidents (6) occurring in 2014. By 2022, the number of violent crimes had returned to zero, representing a 100% decrease from the 2014 peak.
Throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022, Del Norte maintained a consistent record of zero incidents of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter. This stability is particularly noteworthy given the town's population growth during this time. The rate per 1,000 people and the percentage of state crime for this category remained at 0% throughout the analyzed period.
Rape incidents in Del Norte were non-existent from 2010 to 2019. However, there was a significant spike in 2020 with 3 reported cases, accounting for 0.11% of the state's total and a rate of approximately 1.66 incidents per 1,000 people. This number decreased to 2 cases in 2021 and returned to zero by 2022, suggesting that 2020 was an anomalous year for this crime category in the town.
Robbery trends in Del Norte have been minimal, with the only reported incidents occurring in 2014 (2 cases, representing 0.07% of the state's total). This equates to approximately 0.94 incidents per 1,000 people based on the 2014 population. For all other years in the dataset, including 2022, robbery incidents were zero, indicating that robbery is not a persistent issue in the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Del Norte. The first reported cases were in 2012 and 2013, with 1 incident each year. The peak occurred in 2014 and 2015, with 4 cases each year (0.05% of state total), translating to about 1.89 and 1.88 incidents per 1,000 people, respectively. By 2022, aggravated assaults had decreased to zero, showing a positive trend in recent years.
Analysis of correlations reveals a weak relationship between population density and violent crime rates. The years with higher population density (2014-2016) coincided with higher violent crime incidents, but this correlation is not consistent throughout the dataset. There is no clear correlation between violent crime trends and race distribution based on the available data.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests that Del Norte is likely to maintain its current low crime rates. The recent trend of zero violent crimes in 2022 and the overall decrease in incidents since 2015 indicate that the town may continue to experience very low levels of violent crime. However, occasional spikes, as seen in 2020 with rape cases, cannot be ruled out entirely.
In conclusion, Del Norte has demonstrated a positive trend in reducing violent crime over the past decade. The community has maintained zero murders throughout the period, experienced a brief spike in rape cases that has since resolved, and has seen a decline in aggravated assaults to zero by 2022. These trends, combined with the absence of robberies in recent years, suggest that Del Norte has become increasingly safe in terms of violent crime. The challenge for the community will be to maintain these low crime rates as the population continues to grow.