Loading Content...
Violent Crime Trends in Deer Lodge, Montana: A Decade of Fluctuations and a Recent Surge
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Deer Lodge, Montana, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. With a population of 3,188 in 2022 and covering just 1.55 square miles, this small city has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2013 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 5 to 16, representing a 220% increase. During this same period, the population decreased slightly from 3,396 to 3,188, a 6.1% decline.
The murder rate in Deer Lodge has remained extremely low, with no reported cases from 2013 to 2021. However, in 2022, there was one murder reported, marking a significant change. This single incident resulted in a murder rate of 0.31 per 1,000 people in 2022, up from zero in previous years. More strikingly, this single murder accounted for 4.35% of all murders in Montana that year, an unusually high percentage for such a small city. This sudden spike warrants attention, though it's important to note that in small populations, a single incident can dramatically affect rates.
Rape incidents in the city have fluctuated over the years. The highest number of reported rapes was 4 in 2015, translating to a rate of 1.18 per 1,000 people and representing 1.35% of the state's total. However, by 2022, there were no reported rapes, a significant decrease. The percentage of state rapes attributed to the city has varied, peaking at 1.35% in 2015 and dropping to 0% in several years, including 2022. This volatility in rape statistics might reflect changes in reporting practices or genuine fluctuations in occurrences.
Robbery rates in the city have remained consistently low. From 2013 to 2022, there were only three reported robberies: one each in 2013, 2019, and 2020. The robbery rate per 1,000 people never exceeded 0.3 during this period. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics has been minimal, with the highest percentage being 0.59% in both 2013 and 2019. The low and sporadic nature of robbery incidents suggests it is not a prevalent issue in the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most common violent crime in Deer Lodge. The number of incidents peaked at 17 in 2016, corresponding to a rate of 4.96 per 1,000 people. By 2022, this number decreased to 15 incidents, or 4.71 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases has fluctuated, reaching a high of 1.21% in 2016 and settling at 0.63% in 2022. Despite some year-to-year variations, aggravated assault remains the primary concern among violent crimes in the city.
There appears to be a weak correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 2,190 per square mile in 2013 to 2,056 in 2022, violent crime incidents showed an overall increase, suggesting that factors other than population density are influencing crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, Deer Lodge may see a slight increase in overall violent crime rates if current trends continue. The model suggests that aggravated assaults may remain the predominant violent crime, potentially reaching 18-20 incidents annually. However, given the city's small size, even minor fluctuations can significantly impact these predictions.
In summary, Deer Lodge has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime over the past decade. While overall violent crime numbers have increased, the trends vary significantly by crime type. The recent occurrence of a murder, the fluctuations in rape incidents, the consistently low robbery rates, and the persistent issue of aggravated assaults paint a nuanced picture of public safety in this small Montana city. These trends underscore the importance of tailored crime prevention strategies that address the specific challenges faced by Deer Lodge, particularly focusing on reducing aggravated assaults while maintaining the low rates in other violent crime categories.
