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Violent Crime Trends in De Kalb, Texas: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Decrease
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
De Kalb, located in Texas, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated significantly, starting at 9 in 2010, peaking at 18 in 2014, and then declining to 5 in 2019. This represents a 44.4% decrease in violent crimes over the period. Concurrently, the population decreased from 3,963 in 2010 to 2,934 in 2019, a 26% reduction.
The murder rate in the city has remained remarkably low, with only one reported case in 2015 throughout the entire decade. This single incident represented 0.1% of the state's murders that year. The murder rate per 1,000 people was 0.32 in 2015, based on the population of 3,099. Given the isolated nature of this event and the absence of murders in other years, it's challenging to discern a meaningful trend or relationship to population changes.
Rape incidents were similarly rare, with only one reported case in 2019. This represented 0.01% of the state's rapes that year. The rape rate per 1,000 people was 0.34 in 2019, based on the population of 2,934. As with murder, the infrequency of these incidents makes it difficult to establish a clear trend or correlation with population changes.
Robbery trends showed some variation over the years. There were no robberies reported in most years, but the city experienced 1 robbery in 2010, 3 in 2012, 1 in 2016, and 2 each in 2017 and 2018. The highest robbery rate was in 2018, with 0.68 robberies per 1,000 people. The percentage of state robberies peaked at 0.01% in 2012, 2017, and 2018. Despite these fluctuations, the overall numbers remain low, making it challenging to draw significant conclusions about trends or population relationships.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of aggravated assaults varied considerably, from a high of 18 in 2014 to a low of 0 in 2016. The rate per 1,000 people was highest in 2014 at 5.76 and lowest in 2016 at 0. The percentage of state aggravated assaults ranged from 0% to 0.04%, with the peak occurring in 2014. The trend shows a general decline from 2014 to 2019, with some fluctuations.
When examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 2,894 per square mile in 2010 to 2,143 in 2019, there was a general downward trend in violent crimes, despite some year-to-year fluctuations. However, this correlation is not consistently strong throughout the period.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. Based on the historical data and recent trends, we might expect to see an average of 3-5 violent crimes per year, with aggravated assaults likely remaining the most common type of violent crime.
In summary, De Kalb has experienced a overall decrease in violent crimes from 2010 to 2019, mirroring its population decline. The city maintains relatively low rates of serious violent crimes such as murder and rape, with aggravated assaults being the primary concern. The relationship between population density and crime rates suggests that as the city's population has decreased, so too have instances of violent crime, though this trend is not uniformly consistent. Moving forward, if population stabilizes or begins to grow again, it will be crucial to monitor how this impacts violent crime rates in the community.
