Robbery incidents have shown a general decline over the period. The highest number of robberies (6) occurred in 2011 and 2012, representing about 0.18% and 0.20% of the state's total, respectively. The robbery rate per 1,000 people was highest in these years at approximately 1.15. By 2022, robberies had decreased to 2 incidents, or 0.28% of the state's total, with a rate of 0.36 per 1,000 people. This suggests an overall improvement in robbery rates despite a slight uptick in the percentage of state total in the most recent year.

Aggravated assaults have shown the most variability among violent crimes in the city. The number of incidents ranged from a high of 10 in 2013 to a low of 2 in 2016 and 2019. The rate per 1,000 people peaked at 1.84 in 2013 and was lowest at 0.36 in 2016. In 2022, there were 5 aggravated assaults, representing 0.30% of the state's total and a rate of 0.90 per 1,000 people. This indicates a slight increase in recent years but remains below the peak levels seen earlier in the decade.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak positive relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 4,091 per square mile in 2010 to 4,277 in 2022, there was a slight overall increase in violent crime, though the relationship is not consistent year-to-year.

Racial demographics show minimal correlation with violent crime trends, likely due to the city's predominantly white population (89% in 2022). However, there has been a slight increase in diversity over the years, with the non-white population growing from 6% in 2013 to 11% in 2022. This change doesn't appear to have a significant impact on crime rates.

Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that violent crime rates in Dayton may continue to fluctuate but are likely to remain relatively low. By 2029 (seven years from 2022, or five years from now), the total number of violent crimes is expected to range between 8 and 12 incidents annually, assuming population growth and other factors remain consistent with recent trends.

In summary, Dayton, Kentucky has maintained relatively low violent crime rates despite some fluctuations over the past decade. The city's small size magnifies the impact of individual incidents on crime statistics, making long-term trends challenging to establish. However, the overall violent crime situation appears stable, with slight improvements in some categories like robbery, balanced by minor increases in others such as rape and aggravated assault. As the city continues to grow and diversify, maintaining community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial in preserving the generally low crime rates observed in recent years.