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Violent Crime Trends in Darien, Illinois: A Decade of Fluctuation and Overall Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Darien, located in Illinois, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, starting at 12 in 2010 and ending at 8 in 2020, representing a 33.33% decrease. During this same period, the population grew from 27,865 in 2010 to 28,178 in 2020, a modest increase of 1.12%.
The murder rate in this city has shown significant variability over the years. In 2010, there were 3 murders, equating to 0.11 murders per 1,000 residents. This number dropped to zero for most subsequent years, with occasional spikes such as in 2012 (1 murder) and 2018 (2 murders). The percentage of state murders attributed to the city fluctuated accordingly, peaking at 0.5% in 2010 and 0.25% in 2018. These figures suggest that while murder is not a persistent problem, isolated incidents can significantly impact the city's crime statistics due to its relatively small population.
Rape incidents have shown an inconsistent pattern. Data for rape was not available for some years, complicating trend analysis. However, reported cases ranged from 0 to 10, with the highest number (10) occurring in 2018, representing 0.35 incidents per 1,000 residents and 0.23% of state rape cases that year. By 2020, this had decreased to 2 cases (0.07 per 1,000 residents), accounting for 0.06% of state cases. This volatility suggests that while rape is not a widespread issue, individual years can see significant spikes.
Robbery trends have shown a general decline over the decade. In 2010, there were 6 robberies (0.22 per 1,000 residents), accounting for 0.03% of state robberies. By 2020, this had decreased to 4 robberies (0.14 per 1,000 residents), representing 0.04% of state cases. This indicates a positive trend in robbery reduction, even as the city's share of state robberies remained relatively stable.
Aggravated assault cases have fluctuated but show an overall decrease. In 2010, there were 3 cases (0.11 per 1,000 residents), representing 0.01% of state cases. This peaked in 2018 with 12 cases (0.41 per 1,000 residents and 0.05% of state cases) before declining to 2 cases in 2020 (0.07 per 1,000 residents and 0.01% of state cases). This suggests that while the city has experienced periods of increased aggravated assaults, it has managed to reduce these incidents in recent years.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a modest relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As population density increased from 4,517 per square mile in 2010 to 4,567 in 2020, violent crime rates showed some fluctuation but generally remained low. The racial distribution of the city has remained relatively stable, with the white population decreasing slightly from 80% in 2013 to 76% in 2022, while the Hispanic population increased from 5% to 8% over the same period. However, there doesn't appear to be a strong correlation between these demographic shifts and violent crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (until 2029), we anticipate a continuation of the overall decreasing trend in violent crimes. Based on the historical data and current trends, we project that the total number of violent crimes could stabilize around 6-8 incidents per year, barring any significant socioeconomic changes or unforeseen events.
In summary, Darien has experienced a general decrease in violent crimes over the past decade, despite a slight increase in population. The most significant improvements have been seen in robbery and aggravated assault rates, while murder and rape incidents have shown more variability. The city's violent crime rates remain relatively low compared to state averages, suggesting that Darien continues to be a comparatively safe community within Illinois.
