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Violent Crime Trends in Cumberland, Kentucky: A Decade of Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Cumberland, located in Kentucky, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in both its violent crime rates and population. The total number of violent crimes varied from a high of 7 incidents in 2011 and 2013 to years with no reported violent crimes, such as 2015, 2019, 2021, and 2022. Meanwhile, the population grew from 3,460 in 2010 to 3,673 in 2022, representing a 6.16% increase over this period.
Examining murder trends, Cumberland maintained a consistent record of zero murders throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This stability is particularly noteworthy given the population growth. The murder rate per 1,000 people remained at 0, and the city's contribution to the state's murder statistics was consistently 0% throughout this period. This suggests that the city has been successful in preventing homicides despite demographic changes.
Rape incidents in the city showed some variation over time. The highest number of reported rapes was 2 in 2012, representing 0.29% of the state's total. In 2011 and 2013, there was one reported rape each year, accounting for 0.12% and 0.15% of the state's total, respectively. The rape rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.51 in 2012. However, from 2014 to 2022, no rapes were reported, indicating a positive trend in recent years.
Robbery trends in Cumberland were minimal. The city reported only two robberies over the entire period: one in 2013 and one in 2016. These incidents represented 0.03% and 0.03% of the state's total robberies in those respective years. The robbery rate per 1,000 people was 0.28 in 2013 and 0.29 in 2016. The low frequency of robberies suggests that this type of crime is not a significant concern for the city.
Aggravated assault was the most common violent crime in Cumberland. The highest number of aggravated assaults was 6 in 2011, representing 0.14% of the state's total. The rate fluctuated over the years, with notable incidents in 2010 (2 cases, 0.05% of state total), 2013 (5 cases, 0.15% of state total), and 2014 (4 cases, 0.11% of state total). However, from 2019 to 2022, no aggravated assaults were reported, indicating a recent positive trend.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density fluctuated between 992 and 1,252 people per square mile from 2010 to 2022, violent crime rates did not consistently follow these changes. Race distribution shows a correlation with violent crime trends. As the white population percentage decreased slightly from 97% in 2013 to 92% in 2022, and the percentage of people identifying as two or more races increased from 0% to 6%, violent crime rates generally decreased.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the recent trend of zero reported violent crimes from 2019 to 2022, it is likely that Cumberland will continue to experience very low violent crime rates. However, this prediction should be approached with caution, as past fluctuations suggest that isolated incidents could still occur.
In summary, Cumberland has shown a generally positive trend in violent crime rates, particularly in recent years. The city has maintained a consistent record of zero murders, and other violent crimes have decreased to zero reported incidents in the most recent years of data. These trends, coupled with the city's population growth, suggest that Cumberland has been successful in maintaining public safety while experiencing demographic changes.
