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Violent Crime Trends in Country Club Hills: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small Illinois City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Country Club Hills, Illinois, a small city of just under 16,000 residents, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 34.38%, from 64 to 42 incidents annually. During this same period, the population increased by 2.80%, from 15,553 to 15,989 residents, suggesting a general trend towards improved safety despite population growth.
The murder rate in the city has remained relatively low but variable. In 2010, there were no reported murders, but the number fluctuated between 0 and 3 annually through 2020. The murder rate per 1,000 residents peaked in 2018 at 0.18, corresponding to 3 murders that year. As a percentage of state crime, murders in the city ranged from 0% to 0.38% of Illinois' total, with the highest percentage occurring in 2018. This variability in such a small population suggests that individual incidents can significantly impact the city's crime statistics.
Rape incidents showed considerable variation over the decade. The number of reported rapes increased from 10 in 2010 to 17 in 2020, representing a 70% increase. However, when adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 residents grew from 0.64 to 1.06. The city's contribution to state rape statistics fluctuated, peaking at 0.80% in 2012 and dropping to 0.49% by 2020. This trend suggests that while rape incidents increased locally, they did not grow as rapidly as the state average.
Robbery trends showed a significant decline over the period. In 2010, there were 23 reported robberies, which peaked at 44 in 2016 before declining sharply to 9 in 2020, a 60.87% decrease from 2010 levels. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.48 in 2010 to 0.56 in 2020. Despite this decline, the city's share of state robberies remained relatively stable, ranging between 0.08% and 0.27%, indicating that the decrease was somewhat in line with state trends.
Aggravated assault cases fluctuated but ultimately decreased. From 31 cases in 2010, the number dropped to 15 in 2020, a 51.61% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.99 to 0.94 over this period. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics decreased from 0.12% to 0.05%, suggesting a more significant improvement in this category compared to state averages.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between the Black population percentage and violent crime rates. As the Black population increased from 81% in 2013 to 87% in 2020, overall violent crime decreased. Concurrently, the white population decreased from 12% to 7%, correlating with the crime reduction. Population density showed a weak positive correlation with violent crime, peaking at 3,340 per square mile in 2015 when violent crime was also relatively high at 54 incidents.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, if current patterns continue, Country Club Hills may see a further reduction in violent crimes by approximately 15-20% over the next five years (by 2029). This projection suggests the annual violent crime count could potentially drop to around 35-36 incidents.
In summary, Country Club Hills has shown a general trend of decreasing violent crime rates across most categories, particularly in robberies and aggravated assaults, despite a slight population increase. The most significant changes in demographic composition correlate with these crime reductions, potentially indicating a stabilizing community dynamic. While individual violent crime categories show some volatility due to the small population size, the overall trend suggests improving safety conditions in the city.
