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Violent Crime Trends in Conrad, Montana: A Small City's Stable Safety Profile
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Conrad, Montana, is a small community with a population that has fluctuated over the years, reaching 2,638 residents in 2022. The city has experienced varying levels of violent crime, with total incidents ranging from 5 to 12 per year between 2010 and 2022. Over this period, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 25%, from 8 in 2010 to 6 in 2022, while the population increased by 0.57% during the same timeframe.
Murder trends in the city have remained consistently low, with no reported cases throughout the analyzed period from 2010 to 2022. This stability in the absence of murders is particularly noteworthy given the population growth. The murder rate per 1,000 people has remained at zero, and the city has not contributed to the state's murder statistics during this time.
Rape incidents in the city have fluctuated over the years, with a peak of 4 cases reported in 2014. The rape rate per 1,000 people reached its highest point at 1.47 in 2014, coinciding with a population of 2,713. The city's contribution to the state's rape statistics has varied, reaching a maximum of 1.43% in 2014. By 2022, there were no reported rape cases, indicating a decrease in this crime category.
Robbery trends in the city have been minimal, with only one reported incident in 2016. This singular event resulted in a robbery rate of 0.36 per 1,000 people for that year, with the city contributing 0.49% to the state's robbery statistics. In all other years, including 2022, there were no reported robberies, demonstrating a generally low occurrence of this crime type.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents has fluctuated, peaking at 11 cases in 2011, which corresponded to a rate of 4.21 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics has varied, reaching a high of 1.1% in 2011. In 2022, there were 6 reported cases, representing a rate of 2.27 per 1,000 people and 0.25% of the state's total.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates in the city. As population density increased from 2,074 per square mile in 2022 to 2,385 in 2017, violent crime incidents also rose from 6 to 10 cases. Additionally, there seems to be a relationship between median rent and crime rates. As median rent increased from $582 in 2013 to $786 in 2022, violent crime incidents showed some fluctuation but generally remained lower than in earlier years with lower rents.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which we'll refer to as five years from now), it is anticipated that the city will continue to experience low to moderate levels of violent crime. Based on historical patterns, aggravated assault is likely to remain the primary concern, with an estimated 5-7 cases annually. Rape and robbery incidents are expected to remain infrequent, potentially occurring once every few years. The murder rate is predicted to stay at zero, maintaining the city's long-standing trend.
In summary, Conrad has demonstrated a relatively stable violent crime profile over the years, with aggravated assault being the most common offense. The absence of murders, low incidence of rape and robbery, and the overall decrease in violent crimes despite population growth suggest a generally safe community. The correlations between crime rates, population density, and median rent provide insights into potential factors influencing public safety in this small Montana city.
