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Violent Crime Trends in Concordia, Missouri: A City with Zero Murders
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Concordia, Missouri, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. With a population of 2,732 in 2022 and covering just 1.83 square miles, this small city has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates over the years. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of violent crimes ranged from a low of 1 to a high of 6 incidents per year, showing significant variability. During this same period, the population grew from 2,773 to 2,932, an increase of approximately 5.7%.
The murder rate in this city has remained consistently at zero throughout the recorded period from 2010 to 2018. This stability is noteworthy, especially considering the population growth. The rate of 0 murders per 1,000 people has been maintained, and the city has consistently accounted for 0% of the state's murders. This absence of murders speaks to the relative safety of the community in terms of the most severe violent crime.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years. The city recorded no rapes in 2010 and 2014, but saw peaks of 2 incidents in 2015, 2016, and 2017. In terms of percentage of state crime, rape incidents ranged from 0% to 0.11% at its highest in 2015. The rate per 1,000 people varied accordingly, reaching a maximum of about 0.71 per 1,000 in 2017. This trend suggests intermittent challenges with sexual violence, despite the small population.
Robbery has been a rare occurrence in the city. Only one robbery was reported in 2015, accounting for 0.02% of the state's robberies that year. In all other years from 2010 to 2018, there were zero robberies. This translates to a rate that has remained at or very close to 0 per 1,000 people throughout the period. The exceptionally low robbery rate indicates a community where property-related violent crime is not a significant concern.
Aggravated assault has been the most common form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents ranged from 1 to 4 per year between 2010 and 2018. The highest number was recorded in 2016 and 2017, with 4 incidents each year, representing 0.02% of the state's aggravated assaults. The rate per 1,000 people peaked at approximately 1.42 in 2017. Despite these fluctuations, the overall rate remains relatively low for a city of this size.
When examining correlations, there appears to be a weak positive relationship between population growth and the number of violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults. As the population increased from 2,773 in 2010 to 2,932 in 2018, there was a slight upward trend in violent incidents, though not consistently year-over-year. The racial composition of the city, which has remained predominantly white (90% in 2022), does not show a strong correlation with violent crime trends given the low overall numbers.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we might expect the total number of violent crimes to remain relatively stable, potentially ranging between 2 to 6 incidents per year. This prediction is based on the historical variability and the absence of any clear long-term upward or downward trend in the data provided.
In summary, Concordia demonstrates a pattern of low violent crime rates with occasional spikes, particularly in aggravated assaults. The absence of murders, rarity of robberies, and fluctuating but generally low rates of rape and aggravated assault paint a picture of a relatively safe small city. However, the variability in crime numbers from year to year suggests that ongoing community vigilance and law enforcement efforts remain important to maintain the overall low crime environment.
