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Violent Crime Trends in Concord: Capital City Shows Mixed Progress Amidst Demographic Shifts
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Concord, the capital city of New Hampshire, has experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of modest population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in Concord decreased by 36.46%, from 96 incidents to 61. During this same period, the city's population grew by 2.6%, from 42,934 to 44,049 residents.
The murder rate in Concord has shown significant volatility over the years. The city reported no murders in most years from 2010 to 2022, with occasional spikes. In 2021 and 2022, there were 3 murders each year, representing a rate of 0.068 per 1,000 people. These incidents accounted for a substantial portion of the state's murders, with 37.5% and 23.08% of New Hampshire's total in 2021 and 2022, respectively. This suggests that while murders are rare in Concord, when they do occur, they have a significant impact on the state's overall murder statistics.
Rape incidents in the city have shown a general decline over the observed period. In 2010, there were 17 reported rapes, which increased to a peak of 37 in 2017 before declining to 16 in 2022. This represents a decrease from 0.40 to 0.36 incidents per 1,000 people between 2010 and 2022. The city's share of state rape cases has fluctuated, peaking at 12.45% in 2016 and dropping to 7.08% in 2022. This trend suggests that while rape remains a concern, the city has made progress in reducing its occurrence relative to the state overall.
Robbery incidents in Concord have shown a general downward trend. In 2010, there were 27 robberies, which decreased to 14 in 2022, representing a 48.15% reduction. When adjusted for population, this translates to a decrease from 0.63 to 0.32 robberies per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to state robbery figures has varied, from a low of 3.07% in 2013 to a high of 13.18% in 2021, settling at 8.64% in 2022. This indicates that while robberies have decreased overall, Concord's share of state robberies has remained relatively significant.
Aggravated assault cases in the city have shown considerable fluctuation. From 52 incidents in 2010, the number rose to a peak of 70 in 2011, before declining to 28 cases in both 2021 and 2022. This represents a decrease from 1.21 to 0.64 incidents per 1,000 people between 2010 and 2022. The city's proportion of state aggravated assaults has generally decreased, from 6.77% in 2010 to 4.82% in 2022, indicating that Concord has made progress in reducing these incidents relative to the rest of the state.
An analysis of correlations reveals a noteworthy relationship between violent crime trends and population density. As the population density increased from 671 people per square mile in 2010 to 688 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall violent crime rates. This suggests that the city has managed to maintain and even improve public safety despite increasing urbanization.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the overall downward trend in violent crime rates. If current patterns persist, we might expect to see further reductions in robberies and aggravated assaults, while murder rates may remain low but volatile. Rape incidents could stabilize or continue to decline slightly.
In summary, Concord has made significant strides in reducing violent crime over the past decade, particularly in robberies and aggravated assaults. While murder rates remain low, their impact on state statistics is notable when they occur. The city's ability to decrease crime rates while experiencing population growth and increased density is a positive sign for public safety efforts. However, continued vigilance and targeted interventions will be crucial to maintain and further improve these trends in the coming years.
