Robbery trends in Colusa have fluctuated but generally remained low. The number of robberies increased from 1 in 2010 to 3 in 2022, a 200% increase. However, given the small numbers involved, this translates to a modest increase from 0.13 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.39 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics has remained relatively stable at around 0.01% throughout the period.

Aggravated assault cases in Colusa have shown significant variation. The number decreased from 8 in 2010 to 5 in 2022, a 37.5% decrease. This translates to a rate decrease from 1.04 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.64 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has consistently remained at or below 0.01% throughout the period.

A notable correlation emerges between violent crime trends and population density in Colusa. As the population density increased from 1,767 per square mile in 2010 to 1,784 per square mile in 2022, there was a corresponding increase in total violent crimes. This suggests that as the city became more densely populated, it experienced a rise in violent crime incidents.

Predictive models forecasting violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) anticipate a continued slight increase in overall violent crimes if current trends persist. Rape and robbery rates may continue to rise, while aggravated assault could remain relatively stable or show a slight decrease. However, given Colusa's small population and low base numbers, even minor fluctuations can significantly impact these predictions.

In summary, Colusa has experienced a complex evolution in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. While some categories like murder have remained consistently low, others such as rape have shown concerning increases. The correlation between population density and violent crime rates underscores the importance of urban planning and community-based crime prevention strategies as the city continues to grow and evolve.