Robbery trends in the city show a positive development, with a significant decrease of 62% from 3,359 cases in 2010 to 1,275 in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people dropped from 4.25 in 2010 to 1.40 in 2022. However, the city's share of state robberies has fluctuated, ranging from 19.12% in 2014 to 33.04% in 2021, before settling at 22.85% in 2022. This indicates that while robberies have decreased overall, Columbus still accounts for a substantial portion of robberies in Ohio.

Aggravated assault cases in the city have increased by 17% from 1,432 in 2010 to 1,675 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people has remained relatively stable, increasing slightly from 1.81 in 2010 to 1.84 in 2022. The city's share of state aggravated assaults has fluctuated between 9.76% and 16.02% over the years, suggesting that Columbus's aggravated assault trends generally align with statewide patterns.

There appears to be a correlation between violent crime trends and population density in Columbus. As the population density increased from 3,584 people per square mile in 2010 to 4,121 in 2022, certain violent crimes, particularly rape and aggravated assault, also increased. Additionally, there seems to be a relationship between rising median rent, which increased from $809 in 2013 to $1,208 in 2022, and fluctuations in violent crime rates. The changing racial composition of the city, with a decrease in the white population from 58% in 2013 to 52% in 2022 and increases in other racial groups, may also be associated with shifts in crime patterns.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), it is anticipated that murder rates may stabilize or slightly decrease, while rape incidents could continue to rise if current trends persist. Robbery rates are expected to maintain their downward trajectory, potentially reaching historic lows. Aggravated assault cases may continue to increase moderately, in line with population growth.

In summary, Columbus has experienced a mixed pattern of violent crime trends over the past decade. While overall violent crime and robbery rates have decreased significantly, the city has seen concerning increases in rape and murder rates. The relationship between these trends and factors such as population density, median rent, and demographic changes highlights the complex nature of urban crime dynamics. As Columbus continues to grow and evolve, addressing these crime trends will be crucial for maintaining public safety and the city's quality of life.