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Violent Crime Trends in College Station: A Decade of Mixed Progress
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
College Station, Texas, a vibrant city home to Texas A&M University, has experienced significant changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in the city increased by 12.7%, from 220 to 248 incidents. During this same period, the population grew substantially by 31.9%, from 94,246 to 124,326 residents, indicating that crime rates have not kept pace with population growth.
The murder rate in College Station has fluctuated over the years, showing no clear upward or downward trend. In 2010, there were 3 murders, representing 0.31% of the state's total. By 2022, this number decreased to 1, accounting for 0.06% of state murders. The murder rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.032 in 2010 to 0.008 in 2022, suggesting an improvement in public safety relative to population growth. However, the low absolute numbers make it difficult to draw definitive conclusions about long-term trends.
Rape incidents have shown a concerning upward trend. In 2010, there were 37 reported rapes, which increased to 89 in 2022, representing a 140.5% increase. The rape rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.39 in 2010 to 0.72 in 2022. Moreover, the city's share of state rape cases increased from 0.61% to 0.80% during this period, indicating that rape has become a more significant issue in College Station relative to the rest of Texas.
Robbery trends present a more positive picture. The number of robberies decreased from 44 in 2010 to 16 in 2022, a 63.6% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.47 to 0.13 over this period. Additionally, the city's contribution to state robbery cases decreased from 0.15% to 0.09%, suggesting that College Station has made significant progress in curbing robbery compared to other parts of Texas.
Aggravated assault cases have shown slight fluctuations but remained relatively stable. In 2010, there were 136 cases, which increased to 142 in 2022, a 4.4% rise. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 people actually decreased from 1.44 to 1.14. The city's share of state aggravated assault cases decreased slightly from 0.24% to 0.19%, indicating that the city has maintained its assault rates better than the state average.
Examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate positive correlation between population density and rape cases. As the population density increased from 1,842 per square mile in 2010 to 2,430 in 2022, rape cases also rose. Additionally, there seems to be a weak negative correlation between median rent and robbery rates. As median rent increased from $872 in 2013 to $1,134 in 2022, robbery cases decreased.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of current patterns. Rape cases may continue to increase, potentially reaching around 110-120 annual cases. Robbery rates are likely to remain low, possibly stabilizing around 15-20 cases per year. Aggravated assault cases may see a slight increase, potentially reaching 150-160 annual cases. Murder rates are expected to remain low but unpredictable due to their infrequent occurrence.
In summary, College Station has experienced mixed trends in violent crime over the past decade. While robbery rates have significantly improved and aggravated assault has remained relatively stable when adjusted for population growth, the city faces challenges with increasing rape cases. The overall violent crime rate per capita has decreased, suggesting that public safety measures have somewhat kept pace with the rapidly growing population. As College Station continues to evolve, addressing the rising rape incidents while maintaining the positive trends in other violent crime categories will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
