Robbery cases have shown a slight decrease, from 12 incidents in 2010 to 6 in 2022, a 50% reduction. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has decreased more significantly due to population growth, from 0.79 in 2010 to 0.32 in 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics has remained consistently low, hovering around 0.01% to 0.02% throughout the period.

Aggravated assault cases have seen the most significant fluctuations. There was a sharp increase from 106 cases in 2010 to 172 in 2012, followed by a general decline to 116 cases in 2022. Despite the overall increase in number, the rate per 1,000 people has decreased from 7.02 in 2010 to 6.17 in 2022 due to population growth. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has varied, peaking at 0.23% in 2012 and dropping to 0.11% in 2022.

There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,205 per square mile in 2010 to 2,747 in 2022, the overall violent crime rate per 1,000 people decreased. This suggests that the city has managed to maintain relatively stable crime rates despite growing denser.

The Hispanic population in the city has shown a strong correlation with violent crime trends. As the Hispanic population percentage increased from 54% in 2013 to 64% in 2022, there was a general decrease in violent crime rates, particularly in aggravated assaults. This suggests that the growing Hispanic community may be associated with improved community cohesion and reduced violence.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now in 2024), we can expect the following: Murder rates are likely to remain low, with occasional isolated incidents. Rape cases may continue their downward trend, potentially reaching an average of 2-3 cases per year. Robbery incidents are expected to stabilize around 5-7 cases annually. Aggravated assaults may see a slight increase, potentially reaching 120-130 cases per year, but the rate per 1,000 people is expected to remain stable or decrease slightly due to continued population growth.

In summary, Coalinga has demonstrated resilience in managing violent crime rates despite significant population growth. The most important discoveries include the overall decrease in violent crime rates per capita, the city's consistently low contribution to state crime statistics, and the potential positive influence of the growing Hispanic community on crime reduction. These trends suggest that Coalinga is maintaining a relatively safe environment for its residents, with violent crime rates generally moving in a favorable direction.