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Violent Crime Trends in Clyde, Texas: A Decade of Fluctuating Rates in a Small Urban Area
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Clyde, Texas: A Case Study in Violent Crime Trends Clyde, located in Texas, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable increase from 1 incident in 2010 to 5 incidents in 2022, representing a 400% increase. During this same timeframe, the population grew modestly from 6,137 in 2010 to 5,772 in 2022, a decrease of approximately 6%.
Examining murder trends, the city experienced only one recorded murder in 2015, which accounted for 0.1% of the state's total murders that year. This single incident translates to a rate of 0.17 murders per 1,000 people based on the 2015 population of 5,770. In all other years, there were no reported murders, indicating an overall low incidence of this most severe form of violent crime.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic. There were two reported cases in 2017, representing 0.02% of the state's total rapes that year. This translates to a rate of 0.38 rapes per 1,000 people based on the 2017 population of 5,326. In 2022, one rape was reported, accounting for 0.01% of the state's total. The rate for 2022 was 0.17 rapes per 1,000 people. The fluctuation in rape incidents, while concerning, does not show a consistent upward trend.
Robbery trends in the city have been minimal. Single incidents were reported in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2022. The 2015 robbery accounted for 0.01% of the state's total robberies. The rate of robberies per 1,000 people has remained low, with the highest being 0.18 per 1,000 in 2014 (based on a population of 5,581). The sporadic nature of these incidents suggests they are isolated events rather than part of a broader trend.
Aggravated assault has been the most consistently reported violent crime in the city. The number of incidents has fluctuated, with peaks of 7 cases in 2011 (1.13 per 1,000 people) and 4 cases in 2020 (0.71 per 1,000 people). In 2022, there were 3 aggravated assaults, representing a rate of 0.52 per 1,000 people. The percentage of state aggravated assaults attributed to the city has remained low, typically at or below 0.01%.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,868 per square mile in 2010 to 1,757 per square mile in 2022, the overall violent crime incidents showed a slight increase. However, this correlation is not strong enough to suggest a causal relationship.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may experience a slight increase in violent crimes, potentially reaching 6-7 incidents annually. This forecast assumes a continuation of current trends and does not account for potential interventions or significant socioeconomic changes.
In summary, Clyde has maintained relatively low levels of violent crime over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the most prevalent issue. The sporadic nature of more severe crimes like murder and rape suggests these are isolated incidents rather than systemic problems. While the overall trend shows a slight increase in total violent crimes, the rates per capita remain low compared to many urban areas. The city's ability to maintain these low crime rates despite population fluctuations is noteworthy and may be indicative of effective local law enforcement strategies or strong community cohesion.
