Loading Content...
Violent Crime Trends in Chinook, Montana: A Small Town's Unique Safety Profile
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Chinook, Montana, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. With a population of 1,639 in 2022, this small city has experienced fluctuations in both its population and crime rates over recent years. The total number of violent crimes has varied, ranging from 0 to 3 incidents annually between 2016 and 2021, while the population grew by 34% from 1,221 in 2016 to 1,639 in 2022.
The city has fortunately not recorded any murders during the period for which data is available (2016-2021). This consistent absence of murders, despite population growth, suggests a relatively safe environment in terms of the most serious violent crimes. The murder rate per 1,000 people and the percentage of state crime for murder both remain at 0%, indicating that Chinook has maintained a positive record in this aspect of public safety.
Rape incidents in the city also show a consistent pattern of zero reported cases from 2016 to 2021. This statistic is particularly notable given the population increase during this period. The rape rate per 1,000 people and the percentage of state crime for rape both remain at 0%, suggesting that the city has been effective in preventing or addressing this type of violent crime.
Robbery figures in Chinook mirror the trends seen in murder and rape, with no reported incidents from 2016 to 2021. Despite the population growth, the robbery rate per 1,000 people and the percentage of state crime for robbery have remained at 0%. This consistent absence of robberies contributes to the overall picture of a city with low levels of violent crime.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city, though incidents have been sporadic. In 2016, there was 1 case (0.82 per 1,000 people), representing 0.07% of state aggravated assaults. This increased to 3 cases in 2017 (2.51 per 1,000 people), accounting for 0.21% of state incidents. Interestingly, 2018 saw no reported cases, but by 2020, there were again 3 cases (2.16 per 1,000 people), making up 0.16% of state aggravated assaults. In 2021, this decreased to 1 case (0.63 per 1,000 people), representing 0.04% of state incidents. These fluctuations suggest that while aggravated assault occurs, it remains relatively infrequent and represents a small fraction of state-wide cases.
A notable correlation exists between the city's population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,335 per square mile in 2016 to 3,135 per square mile in 2022, there was a slight upward trend in aggravated assaults, though not consistently year-over-year. This suggests that increased population density may have some influence on the occurrence of violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults.
Looking ahead, predictive models suggest that Chinook may continue to see low but potentially fluctuating levels of violent crime, primarily in the form of aggravated assaults. By 2029, which is five years from now, the city might experience between 1 to 3 aggravated assaults annually, maintaining its relatively low contribution to state-wide crime figures. However, if population density continues to increase, there may be a slight upward pressure on these numbers.
In summary, Chinook has maintained a remarkably low violent crime rate across most categories, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The city's ability to keep murder, rape, and robbery rates at zero, even as the population grew, is noteworthy. The fluctuations in aggravated assaults, while minimal, suggest a need for continued vigilance. Overall, Chinook appears to be a relatively safe community with infrequent occurrences of violent crime, a trend that is likely to continue in the near future.
