Robbery trends in the city show an interesting development. From 2010 to 2021, there were no reported robberies. However, in 2022, one robbery was reported, marking a significant change. This single incident resulted in a robbery rate of 0.73 per 1,000 people in 2022. More notably, this robbery accounted for 0.03% of the state's total robberies that year. While this increase is statistically significant for such a small community, it represents an isolated incident rather than a persistent trend.

Aggravated assault has been the most variable violent crime in the city. The number of incidents fluctuated between 0 and 2 per year from 2010 to 2022. Notable years include 2018, when there were 2 aggravated assaults (a rate of 1.23 per 1,000 people), and 2020, with 1 incident (0.74 per 1,000 people). The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics has been minimal, never exceeding 0.01% in any given year. These fluctuations, while noticeable in a small population, do not indicate a consistent upward or downward trend.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,570 per square mile in 2010 to 1,319 in 2022, there was a slight increase in the occurrence of violent crimes, particularly in the latter years. Additionally, the median rent rose from $499 in 2013 to $865 in 2022, but this doesn't show a strong correlation with crime rates. The racial distribution has remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently representing the majority (84% in 2022), showing no strong correlation with crime trends.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on the historical data and recent trends, we might expect: 1. Murder and rape rates are likely to remain at or very near zero, continuing the long-term trend. 2. Robbery rates may fluctuate but are likely to remain low, potentially between 0-1 incidents per year. 3. Aggravated assaults might continue to fluctuate between 0-2 incidents per year, with no strong indication of a significant increase or decrease.

In summary, Charleston has maintained a relatively low and stable violent crime rate over the past decade, despite population fluctuations. The most significant change has been the recent occurrence of a robbery in 2022, breaking a long streak of zero robberies. While this incident is noteworthy, it does not necessarily indicate the beginning of a trend. The city's violent crime rates remain low overall, with aggravated assaults being the most common but still infrequent violent crime. These trends suggest that Charleston continues to be a relatively safe community with sporadic and isolated incidents of violent crime.