Robbery has been an infrequent crime in the city, with most years reporting zero incidents. The highest number of robberies occurred in 2012 with 2 cases, representing 0.18% of the state's total. In 2021, there was 1 robbery, accounting for 0.45% of the state's robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has remained consistently low, never exceeding 0.31 (in 2012). This indicates that robbery is not a significant concern for the city's residents.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of cases ranged from a low of 2 in 2012 to a high of 11 in 2010. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people fluctuated between 0.31 in 2012 and 1.68 in 2010. The city's contribution to the state's total aggravated assaults varied from 0.08% in 2012 to 0.40% in 2021. The recent trend shows a slight increase, with 6 cases reported in 2021, representing 0.40% of the state's total.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As population density decreased from 1,675 per square mile in 2010 to 1,471 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in violent crimes, suggesting a potential link between population density and crime rates. Additionally, the racial composition of the city has seen slight changes, with the white population decreasing from 84% in 2013 to 83% in 2022, while the Black population increased from 2% to 3% during the same period. These demographic shifts coincide with fluctuations in violent crime rates, although a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further analysis.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that the city may experience an average of 8-10 violent crimes per year, with aggravated assaults likely remaining the most common type of violent offense.

In summary, Chadron has demonstrated a generally positive trend in violent crime reduction over the past decade, with some year-to-year fluctuations. The city's violent crime rates remain relatively low, particularly for serious offenses like murder and robbery. While aggravated assaults continue to be the primary concern, their frequency is not alarming for a city of this size. The correlation between decreasing population density and reduced crime rates suggests that the city's demographic changes may be contributing to a safer environment. As Chadron moves forward, maintaining community-based crime prevention strategies and addressing socioeconomic factors could help sustain and improve upon these positive trends in public safety.