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Violent Crime Trends in Catlettsburg: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small Kentucky City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Catlettsburg, located in Kentucky, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with a notable peak of 10 incidents in 2015 and a low of 0 in 2016. Over this period, the population grew from 3,984 in 2010 to 4,612 in 2022, representing a 15.8% increase.
Regarding murder trends, Catlettsburg has maintained a consistent record of zero murders from 2010 to 2022. This stability is particularly noteworthy given the population growth, resulting in a consistent murder rate of 0 per 1,000 people throughout the period. The city's contribution to the state's murder statistics has remained at 0% throughout this time, indicating a significantly positive aspect of public safety in the community.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some fluctuation but generally remained low. The highest number of reported rapes was 1 per year, occurring in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2019. The rape rate per 1,000 people decreased slightly from 0.25 in 2010 to 0.22 in 2019, the last year with a reported incident. The city's percentage of state rape cases varied, peaking at 0.15% in 2013 and dropping to 0% in several years, including 2022. This suggests that while rape incidents occur, they are relatively infrequent and have not increased proportionally with population growth.
Robbery trends in the city show intermittent occurrences. The highest number of robberies was 3 in 2017, with other years seeing 0, 1, or 2 incidents. The robbery rate per 1,000 people reached its peak at 0.76 in 2017 but was 0.22 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics fluctuated, with the highest being 0.14% in 2022. These figures indicate that robbery is not a persistent problem but does occur sporadically.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents peaked at 7 in 2015, with a rate of 1.61 per 1,000 people that year. However, by 2022, there were no reported aggravated assaults. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases reached its highest at 0.18% in 2015 but has since decreased, reaching 0% in 2022. This trend suggests a significant improvement in this category of violent crime over recent years.
There appears to be a weak correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,986 per square mile in 2010 to 3,457 in 2022, violent crime rates did not show a consistent corresponding increase. Similarly, changes in racial distribution, with the white population decreasing slightly from 97% in 2013 to 95% in 2022, do not show a strong correlation with violent crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that violent crime rates in Catlettsburg will likely remain low over the next five years (up to 2029). The city has shown an overall downward trend in violent crimes since 2015, with some fluctuations. If this trend continues, we might expect to see an average of 1-3 violent crimes per year, with the possibility of years with no reported violent crimes.
In conclusion, Catlettsburg has demonstrated a generally positive trend in violent crime statistics over the past decade. Despite population growth, the city has maintained low rates of serious violent crimes such as murder and rape, and has shown improvement in categories like aggravated assault. The sporadic nature of some crimes, particularly robbery, suggests that while the overall trend is positive, continued vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies may be beneficial to maintain and further improve public safety in the coming years.
