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Violent Crime Trends in Catawba: A North Carolina Town's Remarkably Low Incident Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Catawba, located in North Carolina, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2014, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, peaking at 4 incidents in 2011 and declining to 1 incident by 2014, representing a 75% decrease over this period. During the same timeframe, the population grew from 5,863 in 2010 to 7,020 in 2014, an increase of approximately 19.7%.
The murder rate in Catawba remained consistently at zero from 2010 to 2014, with no reported cases of murder or nonnegligent manslaughter. This stable trend persisted despite the population growth, maintaining a murder rate of 0 per 1,000 residents throughout the period. The percentage of state crime for murder also remained at 0%, indicating that the city did not contribute to the state's murder statistics during these years.
Regarding rape incidents, the data available is limited, with no data reported for 2013 and 2014. For the years 2010 to 2012, the rape rate was also consistently at zero. Without more recent data, it's challenging to draw conclusions about trends or the city's contribution to state rape statistics.
Robbery rates in Catawba mirrored the murder rates, with zero incidents reported from 2010 to 2014. This consistency suggests a very low occurrence of robbery crimes in the city, despite the population increase. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents remained at 0, and the city's contribution to state robbery statistics was 0% throughout this period.
Aggravated assault showed the most variation among violent crimes in the city. In 2010, there were no reported cases, but this changed in 2011 with 4 incidents, representing 0.03% of the state's aggravated assaults. The rate then decreased to 1 incident in 2012 (0.01% of state cases), rose slightly to 2 incidents in 2013 (0.02% of state cases), and returned to 1 incident in 2014 (0.01% of state cases). When considering the population growth, the aggravated assault rate per 1,000 residents peaked at approximately 0.69 in 2011, decreasing to about 0.14 per 1,000 residents by 2014.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,287 per square mile in 2010 to 1,541 per square mile in 2014, the overall violent crime incidents decreased from 4 in 2011 to 1 in 2014. However, the limited data points and small number of incidents make it difficult to establish a strong correlation.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's challenging to forecast with high confidence due to the low number of incidents and limited timeframe. However, if the trends from 2010 to 2014 were to continue, we might expect the violent crime rate to remain low, potentially fluctuating between 0 to 2 incidents annually by 2029. This prediction assumes stability in other factors affecting crime rates.
In summary, Catawba exhibited remarkably low violent crime rates from 2010 to 2014, with aggravated assault being the primary contributor to violent crime statistics. The city maintained zero incidents of murder, rape, and robbery throughout this period, despite population growth. These findings suggest that Catawba was a relatively safe community with minimal violent crime concerns during the observed years.
