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Violent Crime Trends in Carroll, Iowa: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Carroll, Iowa, a small Midwestern community, has experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes varied, with a notable increase from 2 incidents in 2017 to 11 in 2022, representing a 450% rise. During this same period, the population grew modestly from 10,249 in 2010 to 10,516 in 2022, a 2.6% increase.
Murder rates in the city have remained consistently low, with zero reported cases throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This stability in murder rates, despite population growth, indicates a per capita rate of 0 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to the state's murder statistics has been non-existent, maintaining a 0% share of Iowa's total murders.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years. The city reported 1 case in 2010, peaking at 3 cases in 2011, and settling at 2 cases in 2022. The rape rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 0.098 in 2010 to 0.190 in 2022. The city's contribution to Iowa's rape statistics varied, reaching a high of 0.44% in 2011 and ending at 0.22% in 2022, suggesting a relatively stable share of state incidents despite population growth.
Robbery trends show intermittent occurrences. The city reported no robberies in several years, including 2010, 2013, 2014, 2016, 2020, 2021, and 2022. When robberies did occur, they were single incidents, as seen in 2011, 2012, 2015, 2017, and 2019. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, with a maximum of 0.098 in 2011 and 2012. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics ranged from 0% in years with no incidents to 0.13% in 2011 and 2019.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of incidents varied significantly, from a low of 1 in 2017 to a high of 13 in 2014. In 2022, there were 9 aggravated assaults reported. The rate per 1,000 residents ranged from 0.098 in 2017 to 1.273 in 2014, ending at 0.856 in 2022. The city's contribution to Iowa's aggravated assault statistics fluctuated, peaking at 0.27% in 2014 and settling at 0.19% in 2022.
A notable correlation exists between violent crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 1,723 per square mile in 2010 to 1,768 in 2022, there was a general upward trend in violent crime incidents. Additionally, there appears to be a relationship between median rent and violent crime rates. For instance, when median rent rose sharply from $660 in 2018 to $893 in 2019, violent crime incidents increased from 2 to 9 in the same period.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential continuation of the upward trend observed in recent years. Based on the historical data and assuming current conditions persist, the city may experience an average of 12-15 violent crimes annually by 2029, with aggravated assaults likely continuing to be the predominant type of violent crime.
In summary, Carroll has maintained relatively low violent crime rates compared to state averages, with no murders reported over the analyzed period. However, the recent uptick in aggravated assaults and the correlation between population density and violent crime rates suggest a need for continued vigilance. The city's changing demographics and economic factors, such as fluctuations in median rent, may play a role in future crime trends. As the community continues to grow and evolve, local law enforcement and policymakers may need to adapt strategies to maintain the historically low crime rates that have characterized this Iowa city.
