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Violent Crime Trends in Carlinville, Illinois: A Study of Stability Amidst Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Carlinville, a small city in Illinois, presents an intriguing case study of violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in Carlinville remained unchanged at 14 incidents, despite a slight population decrease of 1.14% from 6,594 to 6,519 residents. This stability in crime numbers against a backdrop of minor population change offers a unique perspective on the city's public safety landscape.
During this period, Carlinville maintained an exceptionally low murder rate, with only one reported case in 2013. This single incident represented 0.17% of the state's murders that year, with a rate of approximately 0.15 per 1,000 people. In subsequent years, the murder rate dropped to zero, indicating that homicide is an extremely rare occurrence in the city with no significant impact on overall violent crime statistics.
Rape incidents in Carlinville have shown a concerning and volatile pattern. From no reported cases in 2010-2014, the numbers increased dramatically to 16 cases in 2020, accounting for 0.46% of the state's total. This spike translated to a rate of approximately 2.47 rapes per 1,000 people in 2020. However, by 2022, the number had dropped significantly to 1 case, or 0.03% of the state's total, highlighting the need for careful monitoring of this crime category.
Robbery rates in Carlinville have remained consistently low throughout the observed period. The city reported between 0 to 3 robberies annually, with the highest number (3) occurring in 2010. The robbery rate per 1,000 people never exceeded 0.46 (in 2010), and by 2022, it had dropped to zero. The city's contribution to the state's total robberies has been minimal, never exceeding 0.02% of the state's cases.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in Carlinville. The number of cases fluctuated between 9 and 20 annually, with the highest count of 20 occurring in 2012. The rate per 1,000 people ranged from 1.39 (in 2017) to 3.01 (in 2012). The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault cases has varied, reaching a peak of 0.12% in 2013 and settling at 0.1% in 2022. This suggests that while aggravated assault remains a concern, its prevalence relative to the state average has remained fairly consistent.
The relationship between population density and violent crime rates in Carlinville appears weak. As the population density fluctuated between 1,881 and 2,016 people per square mile over the years, violent crime rates did not show a consistent pattern of increase or decrease in response. The racial composition of the city has seen slight changes, with the white population decreasing from 97% in 2013 to 89% in 2022, while other racial groups, particularly those identifying as two or more races, have seen small increases. However, there is no strong correlation evident between these demographic shifts and violent crime trends.
Projections based on available data suggest that violent crime rates in Carlinville may continue to fluctuate but are likely to remain relatively stable over the next five years (up to 2029). The total number of violent crimes is expected to range between 15 and 25 incidents annually, barring any significant changes in local conditions or law enforcement strategies.
In conclusion, Carlinville has maintained relatively low violent crime rates compared to state averages, with aggravated assault being the most prevalent issue. The sporadic nature of more serious crimes like murder and the recent volatility in rape statistics suggest that while the overall violent crime situation is manageable, continued vigilance and community-based prevention strategies will be crucial in maintaining public safety and addressing emerging concerns.
