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Violent Crime Trends in Cape May: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Shrinking Coastal City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Cape May, located in New Jersey, is a small coastal community with a rich history and a population that has been steadily declining over the years. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in the city fluctuated, ranging from a high of 6 in 2016 to a low of 0 in 2017. Over this period, the population decreased from 3,754 in 2010 to 2,877 in 2022, representing a 23.4% decline.
Analyzing murder trends, Cape May has maintained a consistent record of zero murders from 2010 to 2022. This statistic remains unchanged despite the population decline, resulting in a murder rate of 0 per 1,000 people throughout the period. The city's contribution to the state's murder statistics has consistently been 0%, indicating that Cape May has been free from homicides for over a decade.
Regarding rape incidents, the data shows sporadic occurrences. In 2011, there was 1 reported case, followed by 6 cases in 2016, and then 1 case per year from 2018 to 2020. The rape rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.27 in 2011 to 1.66 in 2016, then stabilized around 0.28 from 2018 to 2020. The city's contribution to state rape statistics peaked at 0.89% in 2016, dropping to 0.16% by 2020. This fluctuation suggests that while rape is not a persistent issue, isolated incidents can significantly impact the statistics in a small community.
Robbery trends in the city have been minimal. Only two robberies were reported in 2012, representing 0.02% of the state's robberies that year. Since then, no robberies have been reported, resulting in a robbery rate of 0 per 1,000 people from 2013 to 2022. This indicates that robbery is not a significant concern for the community.
Aggravated assault has been the most consistent form of violent crime in the city. The number of cases ranged from 0 to 6 per year between 2010 and 2022. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, peaking at 2.09 in 2022 (6 cases). The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics varied, reaching a high of 0.11% in 2022. This suggests that while aggravated assault occurs more frequently than other violent crimes, it remains relatively low compared to state levels.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between the declining population and changes in violent crime rates. As the population decreased, the per capita rates for certain crimes, particularly aggravated assault, showed an upward trend. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the increasing Hispanic population (from 5% in 2013 to 18% in 2022) and fluctuations in violent crime, although this relationship requires careful interpretation to avoid unfounded assumptions.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), based on historical data and population trends, we might expect the overall violent crime rate to slightly increase, primarily driven by aggravated assaults. Murder rates are likely to remain at or near zero. Rape incidents may continue occurring sporadically, potentially 1-2 cases every few years. Robbery rates are expected to remain very low or at zero. Aggravated assaults could potentially increase to 7-8 cases per year by 2029.
In summary, Cape May has maintained relatively low violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The city's declining population and changing demographics may continue to influence crime trends, but overall, Cape May remains a comparatively safe community with violent crime rates well below state averages.
