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Violent Crime Trends in Canton, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Canton, Missouri, is a small urban area that has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes in the city varied significantly, with a peak of 16 incidents in 2015 and a low of 0 in 2020. Over this period, the population grew from 3,821 in 2010 to 3,674 in 2022, representing a slight overall decrease of 3.85%.
The murder rate in Canton has remained consistently at zero throughout the recorded period from 2010 to 2022. This stability in the absence of murders is particularly noteworthy given the population changes during this time. The consistent zero murder rate translates to 0 murders per 1,000 people and represents 0% of the state's murder cases each year. This statistic suggests that Canton has maintained a relatively safe environment in terms of the most severe form of violent crime.
Rape incidents in the city have shown some variability over the years. In 2010, there was 1 reported case, which equated to 0.26 cases per 1,000 people and represented 0.09% of the state's rape cases. The number fluctuated in subsequent years, with notable spikes in 2018 (5 cases, 1.41 per 1,000 people, 0.25% of state cases) and 2021 (2 cases, 0.59 per 1,000 people, 0.09% of state cases). In 2022, there was 1 reported case (0.27 per 1,000 people, 0.05% of state cases). These fluctuations indicate that while rape remains a concern, its occurrence is sporadic and has not shown a consistent upward trend.
Robbery incidents in Canton have been virtually non-existent throughout the recorded period. From 2010 to 2022, there were no reported robbery cases, maintaining a consistent 0 robberies per 1,000 people and 0% of the state's robbery cases. This absence of robbery cases suggests that property-related violent crime is not a significant issue in the city.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. In 2010, there were 3 cases (0.78 per 1,000 people, 0.02% of state cases). The number peaked in 2015 with 16 cases (4.70 per 1,000 people, 0.10% of state cases), then fluctuated in subsequent years. In 2022, there were 3 cases (0.82 per 1,000 people, 0.02% of state cases). This trend suggests that while aggravated assault remains a concern, recent years have seen a decrease from the peak levels observed in the mid-2010s.
Examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate positive correlation between the number of violent crimes and median rent. For instance, as median rent increased from $404 in 2013 to $672 in 2018, violent crimes also saw an uptick, peaking at 15 incidents in 2018. However, this correlation weakened in subsequent years.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall violent crime rates. Based on the recent trends, it's projected that the number of violent crimes may settle around 5-7 incidents per year, with aggravated assault likely remaining the most common form of violent crime.
In summary, Canton has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The absence of murders and robberies, combined with sporadic rape incidents, paints a picture of a relatively safe small city. However, the variability in crime rates, particularly in aggravated assaults, suggests that ongoing vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies may be beneficial in maintaining and improving public safety in the coming years.
