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Violent Crime Trends in Cambridge, Ohio: A Decade of Decline Amidst Population Changes
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Cambridge, Ohio, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates against a backdrop of gradual population decline. The total number of violent crimes varied significantly year to year, with notable peaks and valleys, while the population decreased from 14,756 in 2010 to 13,781 in 2022, a 6.6% reduction.
Murder rates in the city have remained relatively low, with most years reporting zero or one murder. The highest incidence was in 2011 with two murders, representing 0.48% of the state's total. When murders did occur, they translated to rates between 0.07 and 0.13 per 1,000 residents. The percentage of state murders fluctuated, reaching a peak of 0.48% in 2011 and dropping to 0% in several years, including 2022. This suggests that while murder is not a persistent issue, isolated incidents can significantly impact the city's statistics due to its small population.
Rape statistics for Cambridge show considerable variation and data gaps. In years with available data, the number of reported rapes ranged from 0 to 9. The highest number was recorded in 2011 with 9 cases, representing 0.35% of the state's total. In 2022, there were 5 reported rapes, accounting for 0.13% of Ohio's cases. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated between 0 and 0.60, with 2022 showing a rate of 0.36 per 1,000. These figures indicate that while rape remains a concern, its occurrence is relatively infrequent compared to state levels.
Robbery trends in the city show a general decline over the studied period. In 2010, there were 12 robberies (0.08% of state total), which peaked at 14 in 2014 (0.13% of state total). However, by 2022, robberies had decreased to 0. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.81 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. This significant reduction suggests improved safety measures or changing socioeconomic conditions in the city.
Aggravated assault numbers have shown considerable variability. The highest number was recorded in 2012 with 40 cases (0.4% of state total), while the lowest was 3 cases in 2017 (0.03% of state total). In 2022, there were 5 aggravated assaults, representing 0.03% of Ohio's total. The rate per 1,000 residents ranged from 0.21 to 2.66, with 2022 showing a rate of 0.36 per 1,000. This volatility suggests that aggravated assault remains a concern, albeit with improving trends in recent years.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 2,317 per square mile in 2010 to 2,164 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in violent crimes, particularly in robberies and aggravated assaults. However, this correlation is not consistent across all years, indicating other factors at play.
The racial composition of Cambridge has remained predominantly white, with a slight decrease from 93% in 2013 to 90% in 2022. During this period, there was a small increase in the Black population from 2% to 4%. These demographic shifts do not show a strong correlation with violent crime trends, suggesting that other socioeconomic factors may have more significant influences on crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on recent trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Cambridge may see a continued low incidence of murders, potentially averaging less than one per year. Rape cases are predicted to remain relatively stable, possibly fluctuating between 3 to 6 cases annually. Robberies are expected to remain very low, potentially at 0 to 2 cases per year. Aggravated assaults may stabilize around 5 to 8 cases annually.
In summary, Cambridge has experienced a general downward trend in violent crimes over the past decade, particularly in robberies and aggravated assaults. While there have been fluctuations in various crime categories, the overall trajectory suggests improving safety conditions. The city's declining population and density may have contributed to this trend, but the relationship is not uniformly strong across all crime types. Moving forward, Cambridge appears poised to maintain relatively low violent crime rates, with the caveat that its small population means even minor changes in crime numbers can result in significant statistical variations.
