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Violent Crime Trends in Calumet City: A Decade of Fluctuations and Overall Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Calumet City, Illinois, a suburb located southeast of Chicago, has experienced significant changes in its violent crime landscape over the past decade. From 2010 to 2020, the total number of violent crimes decreased by 36%, from 247 to 158 incidents. During this same period, the city's population saw a slight decline of 0.04%, from 36,230 to 36,216 residents.
The murder rate in the city has fluctuated over the years, with notable changes in both frequency and its proportion of state crime. In 2010, there were 4 murders, representing 0.67% of the state's total. This figure peaked in 2016 with 9 murders, accounting for 0.96% of Illinois' murders. By 2020, the number had decreased to 5, or 0.51% of the state's total. When adjusted for population, the murder rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.11 in 2010 to 0.14 in 2020, indicating a slight upward trend despite the overall decrease in violent crime.
Rape incidents have shown a concerning trend. In 2010, there were 31 reported rapes, constituting 1.81% of the state's total. By 2020, this number had decreased slightly to 29, but still represented 0.84% of Illinois' rapes. The rape rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable, moving from 0.86 in 2010 to 0.80 in 2020. This suggests that while the raw numbers have decreased, rape remains a persistent issue in the community.
Robbery has seen a significant decline over the decade. In 2010, there were 160 robberies, making up 0.88% of the state's total. By 2020, this number had halved to 80, representing 0.76% of Illinois' robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 4.42 in 2010 to 2.21 in 2020, indicating a substantial improvement in this area of violent crime.
Aggravated assault trends have been mixed. In 2010, there were 52 cases, accounting for 0.21% of the state's total. This number peaked at 84 in 2015 (0.35% of state total) before declining to 44 in 2020, representing 0.16% of Illinois' aggravated assaults. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 1.43 in 2010 to 1.21 in 2020, suggesting a relatively stable situation despite the fluctuations.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the city's demographic shifts and violent crime trends. The Black population percentage increased from 68% in 2013 to 71% in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in violent crime. This suggests that demographic changes may have influenced crime patterns, though causation cannot be implied.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decline in overall violent crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, we project that by 2029, the total number of violent crimes could decrease by an additional 15-20%, potentially reaching around 130-135 incidents annually.
In summary, Calumet City has made significant strides in reducing violent crime over the past decade, particularly in robbery rates. However, challenges remain, especially concerning murder and rape incidents. The city's changing demographics appear to be correlated with these crime trends, suggesting that community-based approaches tailored to the evolving population may be effective in further reducing violent crime. As the city moves forward, continued focus on crime prevention strategies and community engagement will be crucial in maintaining and improving upon these positive trends.
