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Violent Crime Trends in California, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small Urban Area
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
California, Missouri, is a small urban area with a population of 7,393 as of 2022. This analysis examines the violent crime trends in the city from 2010 to 2018, during which time the population grew by 1.69% from 6,864 to 6,980. The total number of violent crimes fluctuated over this period, with a notable peak of 14 incidents in both 2012 and 2016, and a low of 0 incidents reported in 2017.
Murder trends in the city have been relatively stable, with only one recorded incident in 2014. This translates to a rate of 0.14 murders per 1,000 people for that year. The single murder in 2014 represented 0.3% of the state's total murders, a significant figure for a city of this size. The infrequency of murder cases makes it challenging to establish a clear trend, but it suggests that homicide is not a persistent issue in the community.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic, with peaks of 3 cases in 2012 (0.43 per 1,000 people) and 1 case in both 2013 and 2015 (0.14 per 1,000 people). These incidents represented 0.25%, 0.06%, and 0.05% of the state's total rapes in their respective years. The inconsistent nature of these crimes indicates that while sexual violence is not a constant threat, it remains a concern that requires attention from law enforcement and community leaders.
Robbery trends show fluctuations, with the highest number of incidents (6) occurring in 2012, representing 0.87 robberies per 1,000 people and 0.11% of the state's total. The number of robberies decreased to 3 in 2015 and 4 in 2016, before dropping to 0 in 2017 and 2018. This downward trend in recent years suggests improving safety with regard to property crimes against persons.
Aggravated assault cases have shown the most variability among violent crimes in the city. The number of incidents peaked at 10 in 2016, equating to 1.42 assaults per 1,000 people and 0.06% of the state's total. However, this was followed by a sharp decline to 0 cases in 2017 and then a slight increase to 3 cases in 2018. The fluctuation in aggravated assault rates indicates a need for continued vigilance in addressing factors that contribute to violent confrontations.
Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's population density increased from 1,775 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,805 in 2018, coinciding with periods of both high and low crime rates. This suggests that population density alone may not be a strong predictor of violent crime in this community.
The racial composition of the city has remained predominantly white, with a slight decrease from 91% in 2013 to 87% in 2018. During this period, there was a small increase in the Hispanic population from 6% to 9%. These demographic shifts do not appear to have a strong correlation with violent crime trends, as crime rates fluctuated independently of these gradual changes.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now) suggests a potential stabilization of crime rates at low levels, similar to those seen in 2017 and 2018. However, this prediction should be interpreted cautiously due to the high variability in past data and the small number of incidents overall.
In summary, California, Missouri, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade, with notable improvements in recent years. The most significant findings include the rarity of murders, the sporadic nature of rape incidents, a declining trend in robberies, and variable rates of aggravated assaults. While the city's demographic composition has remained relatively stable, the relationship between population growth and crime rates appears complex. Moving forward, maintaining and enhancing community safety initiatives will be crucial in sustaining the recent positive trends in violent crime reduction.
