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Violent Crime Trends in Burnside, Kentucky: A Decade of Low Rates and Sporadic Incidents
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Burnside, Kentucky, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. With a population that has grown from 14,204 in 2010 to 15,147 in 2022, representing a 6.6% increase, the city has experienced fluctuations in its violent crime rates. Over this period, the total number of violent crimes has varied, ranging from a low of 0 in 2021 to a high of 3 in 2012, with no clear consistent trend.
Examining murder rates, Burnside has maintained a remarkably low profile. With only one recorded murder in 2012, which represented 0.88% of the state's total that year, the city has otherwise remained free of homicides. This single incident translates to a rate of approximately 0.07 murders per 1,000 people in 2012. The absence of murders in other years suggests that this was an isolated event rather than indicative of a broader trend.
Rape incidents in the city have been similarly infrequent. Only two cases were reported during the period analyzed: one in 2012 and another in 2020. These incidents represented 0.14% and 0.15% of the state's total rapes in their respective years. The rate per 1,000 people was approximately 0.07 in 2012 and 0.06 in 2020, showing a slight decrease relative to population growth. The sporadic nature of these crimes makes it challenging to identify a clear trend, but it does indicate that rape is not a persistent problem in the area.
Robbery trends in Burnside show some variability. The city experienced no robberies in most years, but there were spikes in 2014 and 2015 with 2 robberies each year, and again in 2022 with 2 robberies. These incidents represented 0.07% of the state's robberies in 2014 and 2015, and 0.28% in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people was approximately 0.14 in 2014 and 2015, decreasing slightly to 0.13 in 2022 due to population growth. This suggests that while robbery is not a consistent issue, there have been periodic increases that warrant attention.
Aggravated assault in the city has shown some fluctuation. There were single incidents in 2010 and 2013, representing 0.02% and 0.03% of the state's total respectively. In 2018, there was a spike with 2 cases, accounting for 0.15% of the state's aggravated assaults. The rate per 1,000 people was approximately 0.07 in 2010 and 2013, rising to 0.14 in 2018. This indicates that while aggravated assault is not a frequent occurrence, there have been occasional increases that may require monitoring.
When examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors, a notable relationship emerges with median rent. As median rent increased from $404 in 2013 to $569 in 2022, there was a slight uptick in violent crimes, particularly in robbery. This suggests that economic factors may play a role in crime rates, though the correlation is not strong enough to draw definitive conclusions.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential slight increase in overall violent crimes. Based on the historical data, we might expect to see an average of 1-2 violent crimes per year, with robbery potentially being the most frequent type. However, given the city's historically low crime rates, any increase is likely to be minimal.
In summary, Burnside has maintained relatively low violent crime rates over the past decade, with occasional spikes in specific categories. The most significant findings are the sporadic nature of violent crimes and the potential correlation with economic factors such as rising rent prices. As the city continues to grow, maintaining vigilance and addressing underlying economic issues may be key to preserving its generally safe environment.
