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Violent Crime Trends in Burlington, NC: Population Growth Outpaced by Crime Rates
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Burlington, located in North Carolina, has experienced significant changes in violent crime rates over the past decade, alongside notable population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes fluctuated, with 395 incidents reported in 2010 and 500 in 2022, representing a 26.6% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 58,529 to 67,388, a 15.1% increase, indicating that crime rates have outpaced population growth.
Murder rates in the city have shown variability over the years. In 2010, there were 3 murders, which decreased to 0 in 2013, but then rose to a peak of 10 in 2019. By 2022, the number had decreased to 4. When adjusted for population, the murder rate per 1,000 people fluctuated from 0.051 in 2010 to 0 in 2013, peaking at 0.159 in 2019, and settling at 0.059 in 2022. The city's percentage of state murders has also varied, from 1.19% in 2010 to a high of 2.67% in 2019, before decreasing to 0.7% in 2022. These fluctuations suggest periodic spikes in murder rates relative to both the city's population and state figures.
Rape data for Burlington shows an increase from 11 cases in 2010 to 33 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.188 in 2010 to 0.490 in 2022. The city's percentage of state rapes increased from 0.97% in 2010 to 1.73% in 2022, indicating a growing proportion of the state's rape cases occurring in Burlington.
Robbery trends show a general decline over time. In 2010, there were 69 robberies, which peaked at 114 in 2017, before decreasing to 64 in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 1.179 in 2010 to 0.950 in 2022. The city's percentage of state robberies fluctuated, starting at 0.93% in 2010, peaking at 1.79% in 2017, and settling at 1.25% in 2022. This suggests that while robberies have decreased overall, the city's share of state robberies has slightly increased.
Aggravated assault cases have shown an upward trend. In 2010, there were 312 cases, which increased to 399 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 5.330 in 2010 to 5.921 in 2022. The city's percentage of state aggravated assaults decreased slightly from 2.32% in 2010 to 1.66% in 2022, indicating that while assaults have increased in the city, they've grown at a slower rate compared to the state overall.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,933 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,226 in 2022, violent crime rates also generally increased. Additionally, there seems to be a relationship between median rent and crime rates. As median rent rose from $677 in 2013 to $882 in 2022, violent crime rates also trended upward, suggesting a possible link between economic factors and crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029, Burlington may see approximately 550-600 violent crimes annually if current trends continue. This projection assumes a continued gradual increase in population and crime rates.
In summary, Burlington has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime over the past decade. While some categories like robbery have shown improvement, others such as aggravated assault have worsened. The city's growing population and changing demographics appear to be influencing factors in these trends. As Burlington continues to develop, addressing these crime patterns will likely be crucial for maintaining community safety and quality of life.
