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Violent Crime Trends in Brunswick, Missouri: A Small City's Struggle with Aggravated Assaults
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Brunswick, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends within a small urban setting. With a population of 974 in 2022, this compact city of 1.2 square miles has experienced fluctuations in both its population and crime rates over the years. From 2010 to 2014, the total number of violent crimes increased from 4 to 5, representing a 25% increase, while the population decreased by 17.5% from 1,298 to 1,071 during the same period.
The murder rate in the city shows a noteworthy pattern. In most years, there were no recorded murders, with the exception of 2013 when one murder occurred. This single incident resulted in a murder rate of 0.88 per 1,000 people for that year, which was significantly higher than the city's norm. More strikingly, this single murder accounted for 0.33% of the state's total murders in 2013, an unusually high proportion for such a small city. This anomaly underscores the outsized impact that rare violent events can have on crime statistics in small communities.
Rape statistics for Brunswick are consistently reported as zero throughout the available data from 2010 to 2014. This absence of reported rapes could indicate either an effective prevention strategy or potential underreporting issues. Given the small population, even a single incident would have resulted in a noticeable rate per 1,000 people, making the consistent zero figures particularly notable.
Similarly, robbery figures remain at zero for all years with available data. This consistent absence of robberies suggests that property-related violent crime is not a significant issue in the city. The zero percentage of state robberies further reinforces this observation, indicating that Brunswick does not contribute to Missouri's robbery statistics during this period.
Aggravated assault emerges as the primary form of violent crime in the city. The number of aggravated assaults fluctuated between 2 and 5 incidents per year from 2010 to 2014. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 3.08 in 2010 to 4.67 in 2014, despite the population decrease. This indicates a rising trend in the frequency of assaults relative to the population size. The city's contribution to the state's total aggravated assaults ranged from 0.01% to 0.04%, showing a slight upward trend over time.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,079 per square mile in 2010 to 890 in 2014, the total violent crime rate increased. This could suggest that factors associated with population decline, such as economic challenges, might be influencing crime rates more than population density itself.
Racial demographics show minimal correlation with violent crime trends. The white population remained relatively stable at around 87-90% throughout the period, while violent crime fluctuated. The slight increase in racial diversity, with the two or more races category growing from 2% to 5% between 2013 and 2014, does not appear to have a significant correlation with crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the limited data available, it's projected that by 2029, Brunswick may see a slight increase in violent crimes, potentially reaching 6-7 incidents annually if current trends continue. This forecast assumes a continuation of the gradual upward trend in aggravated assaults and stable rates for other violent crimes.
In summary, Brunswick's violent crime landscape is primarily characterized by fluctuations in aggravated assaults, with rare but impactful incidents of more serious crimes like murder. The city's small size amplifies the statistical impact of individual crimes, making trend analysis challenging. Moving forward, focusing on assault prevention and maintaining the low rates of other violent crimes will be crucial for the city's safety and security.
