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Violent Crime Trends in Brookside Village, Texas: A Decade of Fluctuations Amidst Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Brookside Village, located in Texas, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. Over the past decade, this small community has experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, ranging from a high of 6 in 2014 to a low of 0 in 2012 and 2016. The overall trend shows a decrease in violent crime, with 3 incidents reported in 2020, down from 4 in 2010. This represents a 25% decrease in total violent crimes over this period. Interestingly, the population has also decreased during this time, from 1,898 in 2010 to 1,364 in 2020, a decline of about 28%.
Examining specific violent crime categories, murder and nonnegligent manslaughter have remained consistently at zero throughout the reported years. This stability in the absence of murders is noteworthy, especially considering the population changes. The murder rate per 1,000 people has therefore remained at 0, and the city has not contributed to the state's murder statistics during this period.
Rape incidents have shown some variation over time. The city reported one rape in 2011 and 2014, representing 0.02% and 0.01% of the state's total rapes respectively. In 2020, another rape was reported, again accounting for 0.01% of the state's total. The rape rate per 1,000 people increased slightly from 0.55 in 2011 to 0.63 in 2014, and then to 0.73 in 2020, due to the declining population. However, with such low numbers, these changes should be interpreted cautiously.
Robbery trends have been inconsistent. The city reported no robberies in most years, with exceptions in 2013 (1 incident), 2014 (2 incidents), 2015 (1 incident), and 2020 (1 incident). The robbery rate per 1,000 people was highest in 2014 at 1.26, decreasing to 0.73 in 2020. The city's contribution to the state's robbery statistics has remained minimal, never exceeding 0.01% of the state total.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of incidents fluctuated from 4 in 2010 and 2011, to 3 in 2014, and then decreased to 1 in 2020. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 people decreased from 2.11 in 2010 to 0.73 in 2020. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics has also decreased, from 0.01% in 2010 to 0% in 2020.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 918 per square mile in 2010 to 660 in 2020, the overall violent crime rate also showed a general downward trend. Additionally, there seems to be a relationship between the Hispanic population percentage and violent crime rates. As the Hispanic population increased from 34% in 2013 to 41% in 2020, violent crime rates showed some fluctuation but an overall decrease.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, Brookside Village may see a slight increase in violent crimes, potentially reaching 4-5 incidents annually. This projection assumes that current demographic and socioeconomic trends continue.
In summary, Brookside Village has experienced an overall decrease in violent crime rates despite fluctuations in specific crime categories. The consistent absence of murders, the sporadic nature of rapes and robberies, and the decline in aggravated assaults paint a picture of a relatively safe small community. The correlation between decreasing population density and declining crime rates suggests that changes in the city's urban fabric may have played a role in improving safety. As the city moves forward, maintaining community engagement and preventive measures will be crucial in sustaining and potentially improving upon these positive trends in violent crime reduction.
