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Violent Crime Trends in Bridger, Montana: A Decade of Fluctuating Incidents in a Small Community
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Bridger, Montana, a small community with a population of 1,022 in 2022, has experienced fluctuating violent crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of violent crimes varied between 0 and 4 incidents per year, showing no consistent trend. During this period, the population grew from 900 in 2010 to 1,046 in 2021, an increase of 16.2%.
The murder rate in Bridger has remained exceptionally low, with only one reported case in 2010. This single incident represented 10% of the state's murders that year, a significant proportion for such a small town. However, in subsequent years, there were no reported murders. Given the town's small population, even one murder translates to a rate of approximately 1.11 per 1,000 residents in 2010. The absence of murders in following years indicates an improvement in public safety regarding homicides.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic. The only reported cases occurred in 2017, with two incidents. This represented 0.56% of the state's total rapes for that year. The rate per 1,000 residents was approximately 1.80 in 2017. The isolated nature of these incidents suggests they were anomalous rather than indicative of a broader trend.
Robbery has been nonexistent in Bridger throughout the recorded period. This consistent absence of robberies from 2010 to 2021 suggests a relatively safe environment in terms of property-related violent crimes.
Aggravated assault has been the most common form of violent crime in the city, though occurrences have been infrequent. The highest number of aggravated assaults was recorded in 2010 and 2015, with three incidents each year. This translates to rates of 3.33 and 2.49 per 1,000 residents, respectively. In 2020, there were two reported cases, resulting in a rate of 1.89 per 1,000 residents. The percentage of state aggravated assaults attributed to Bridger has fluctuated, reaching a high of 0.36% in 2010 and a low of 0.07% in 2017.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,128 per square mile in 2010 to a peak of 1,598 in 2014, violent crime rates generally decreased. However, this correlation is not strong enough to draw definitive conclusions.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests that Bridger is likely to continue experiencing low and sporadic violent crime rates. Based on historical patterns, we might expect between 0 to 3 violent crimes per year, with aggravated assault remaining the most likely type of incident.
In summary, Bridger has maintained a relatively low violent crime rate over the past decade, with sporadic incidents primarily consisting of aggravated assaults. The city's small population means that even a single incident can significantly impact crime rates per capita. The absence of robberies and the rarity of murders and rapes indicate a generally safe community. However, the fluctuating nature of the crime statistics underscores the need for continued vigilance in maintaining public safety in this small Montana town.
